When Will the 2026 Dry Season Begin? BMKG’s Forecast
During the first two months of 2026, heavy rainfall was recorded across several regions of Indonesia. The intensity of rainfall even triggered disasters in some areas, such as cold lahar floods in Magelang in early March 2026. Citing the official website of the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), the weather in most of Indonesia in March 2026 is predicted to be dominated by light to moderate rain. However, parts of Indonesia remain at risk of heavy rain, especially in Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, and the mountainous regions of Papua.
As mid-year approaches, the rainy season will shift to the dry season, characterised by dry winds and the bediding phenomenon. So, when will the 2026 dry season begin? Here is BMKG’s forecast.
Forecast for the 2026 Dry Season According to BMKG
According to BMKG’s official site, the La Niña phenomenon ended in February 2026. It has shifted to a neutral phase and potentially towards El Niño by mid-year. This shift triggers an earlier start to the 2026 dry season across most of Indonesia.
The transition from the Westerly Wind (Asian Monsoon) to the Easterly Wind (Australian Monsoon) marks the start of the dry season. BMKG reports that 114 Season Zones (ZOM) or 16.3% of Indonesia’s area are expected to begin entering the dry season in April 2026, namely the northern Java coast on the western side, most of Central Java through East Java, NTB, NTT, and parts of Kalimantan and Sulawesi.
BMKG analysis shows that 12.6% of Indonesia’s area is expected to experience the peak of the dry season in July 2026, covering parts of Sumatra, central and northern Kalimantan. The same applies to parts of Java, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, Maluku, and the western part of the island of New Guinea.
Most of Indonesia, covering 429 ZOM or 61.4% of the area, is predicted to experience the peak of the dry season in August 2026. This will dominate central and southern Sumatra, Central Java through East Java, most of Kalimantan and Sulawesi, all of Bali and Nusa Tenggara, and parts of Maluku and Western Papua.
14.3% of the area will experience the peak of the dry season in September 2026. This is expected in parts of Lampung, parts of Java, and most of NTT.
The 2026 dry season, in general, is projected to be below normal or drier than usual in 451 ZOM (64.5% of the area) and normal in 245 ZOM (35.1%). Meanwhile, 3 ZOM (0.4%) in Gorontalo and Southeast Sulawesi may experience above-normal or wetter-than-normal dry season. This condition means the duration of the dry season in 57.2% of Indonesia is expected to be longer.
Preparations for facing a long dry season
In response to the forecast for the 2026 dry season, BMKG emphasises the importance of precautionary steps by the government and all segments of society. Farmers, for example, should adjust planting schedules and choose crop varieties that are more water-efficient, drought-tolerant, and have faster harvest cycles.
Water resource management also needs strengthening through revitalisation of reservoirs and improvement of distribution networks to ensure access to clean water during the dry season. There is also potential for forest and land fires (karhutla) during the dry season, so the government needs to prepare rapid response mechanisms to prevent these disasters.
Summarised from the Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta’s site, there are several steps individuals can take to face the dry season as follows:
Use water wisely.
Protect vegetation in the surrounding environment.
Support climate mitigation efforts by the government or other agencies.
Monitor the latest climate and weather information from BMKG and other trusted sources.
Thus the explanation about the estimated start of the 2026 dry season in Indonesia. Hopeful.