The Presidential elections: A prognosis

Jusuf Wanandi Jakarta

During a conference on the Indonesian elections held by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government (APSEG) at the Australian National University (ANU) in Canberra on May 13 to May 14, political analysts Harry Tjan and Sjahrir did not support my prediction of a duel between Wiranto and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the runoff of the presidential election on Sept.20.

They still foresee a fair chance for President Megawati Soekarnoputri to reach the final round of the presidential race.

However, since in the legislative election Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) lost 44 percent of the votes it gained in 1999 (down from 34 percent in 1999 to 18 percent in 2004), and it lost in almost every province, and the fact that she would not likely change her leadership and her inner circle -- who were known as either corrupt or incompetent -- her chance of reaching the runoff is really very small.

Hasyim Muzadi, the chairman of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) might bring NU votes with him, but surely not all of them, because NU -- even without Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid as a candidate -- fielded other candidates besides Hasyim, such as Solahuddin Wahid, Hamzah Haz, and even Jusuf Kalla, who has also been associated with NU.

According to insiders of PDI-P, some members of the central board have felt so hopeless about the party's leadership that its supporters are lining up support for Susilo.

Wiranto has supposedly the best machine in Golkar and a lot of money. However, his chance will depend upon whether Golkar can unite to support his bid. The candidacy of Jusuf Kalla, a leading Golkar figure, as the running mate of Susilo, could split Golkar's supporters and votes.

Moreover, Akbar's supporters may have been so disappointed with the way that Wiranto won the convention -- allegedly through money politics, that they may be willing to line up for somebody else, such as Kalla and Susilo.

As has been said in my earlier articles in the Post, Wiranto's international reputation has been damaged due to allegations of human rights violations in East Timor, and the riots in May 1998 and the killings of students in the Semanggi I and II incidents (1999 and 2000).

Civil society, the media and the students are still going after him. Their protest will definitely become bigger and bigger with the elections nearing. In the end, the public will be increasingly aware of the drawbacks of Wiranto's possible presidency. Therefore, one could expect a strong move against him during the campaign period next month.

Susilo is the most popular, according to most opinion polls at this stage of the elections, and has, in Jusuf Kalla, a running mate who is highly respected and could gain backup from a sizable number of Golkar supporters.

If the election were to be held today, Susilo might win. But the final round could be another four months off, and a lot can happen before then. Besides which, he has no political machine to talk of, since the three parties supporting him -- the Democratic Party, the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI) -- together have just over 11 percent of the votes (or 69 seats in the House of Representatives).

If a reasonable number of PDI-P and Golkar supporters split from their parties to support Susilo, he would have a good chance of reaching the (possible) final round. Also, if the presidential election were to be won on individual popularity, Susilo's chance would be great.

At the grass-roots level, especially in rural areas, the role of informal or formal leaders in guiding voters' decisions is still very strong.

Because civil society and students still do not trust the Indonesian Military (TNI), or generals as presidential candidates, Susilo has to work hard to gain their trust. Otherwise, he will be considered to be of the same camp as Wiranto, which would be bad news for him, especially as he is so dependent on his personal popularity to win the presidency.

At the aforementioned conference, Susilo made the best speech on his platform and future plans. He was quite open to criticism, and defended himself in a straightforward way -- including alleged human rights abuses, and the need to bring the perpetrator to justice.

Amien Rais is not of the same league as the pairs of candidates mentioned earlier, especially since Hamzah Haz has also decided to join the race and may take away some of Amien's supporters.

Amien's National Mandate Party (PAN) did not come up strongly in the legislative election, but Muhammadiyah -- the country's second largest Muslim organization -- is supporting him. Nevertheless, he recognizes that it will be an uphill battle because in terms of organization and budget, as well as popularity, Amien has never really gotten off the ground.

He has improved so much since he emerged as the leader of the reform movement in Indonesia in 1998. In the meantime, he led the team responsible for amendments to the constitution wisely, and was mainly responsible for managing Gus Dur's ouster from the presidency, constitutionally and with finesse.

Amien is also the most consistent of the Muslim leaders against global terrorism. His economic platform has improved, but is not yet adequate to gain full trust from the private sector. His personal staff and entourage have markedly improved, but it is still not easy for him to gain the people's support because of his past controversial rhetoric and capriciousness.

Hamzah Haz, leader of the United Development Party (PPP), decided to run for the presidency after Megawati chose NU chairman Hasyim Muzadi as her running mate. Actually the party was divided about his decision to run, but in the end they relented, even though they know his chances were slim.

Gus Dur also tried hard to join the presidential race, but was disqualified by the General Elections Commission (KPU) on health reasons. ( paragraph ni akan dicheck lagi sesudah pengumuman KPU Sabtu sore atau malam, vin)

The presidential election will be the first-ever direct presidential election. We don't know which factor will dominate the people's decision-making. Popularity could be the main influence, in which case Susilo would hold the advantage. It could be that the track record of the party machine has the most bearing, in which case Wiranto would benefit.

Also, a very strong antimilitarism mood could rein over public opinion, whereby Megawati would benefit. We will get a clearer picture only after the first round, when we should know who the finalists are going to be.

The nature of the leadership of the next president will be critical to the country's future. It is critical that the next five years will see further policies implemented to overcome the crisis and get Indonesia moving again. In that sense the presidential election will be even more important than the legislative one.

The writer is co-founder and member of the board of trustees of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).