The Presidential elections: A prognosis<\/p>\n
Jusuf Wanandi
\nJakarta<\/p>\n
During a conference on the Indonesian elections held by the
\nCenter for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the
\nAsia Pacific School of Economics and Government (APSEG) at the
\nAustralian National University (ANU) in Canberra on May 13 to May
\n14, political analysts Harry Tjan and Sjahrir did not support my
\nprediction of a duel between Wiranto and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
\nin the runoff of the presidential election on Sept.20.<\/p>\n
They still foresee a fair chance for President Megawati
\nSoekarnoputri to reach the final round of the presidential race.<\/p>\n
However, since in the legislative election Megawati's
\nIndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) lost 44 percent
\nof the votes it gained in 1999 (down from 34 percent in 1999 to
\n18 percent in 2004), and it lost in almost every province, and
\nthe fact that she would not likely change her leadership and her
\ninner circle -- who were known as either corrupt or incompetent
\n-- her chance of reaching the runoff is really very small.<\/p>\n
Hasyim Muzadi, the chairman of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) might
\nbring NU votes with him, but surely not all of them, because NU
\n-- even without Abdurrahman \"Gus Dur\" Wahid as a candidate --
\nfielded other candidates besides Hasyim, such as Solahuddin
\nWahid, Hamzah Haz, and even Jusuf Kalla, who has also been
\nassociated with NU.<\/p>\n
According to insiders of PDI-P, some members of the central
\nboard have felt so hopeless about the party's leadership that its
\nsupporters are lining up support for Susilo.<\/p>\n
Wiranto has supposedly the best machine in Golkar and a lot of
\nmoney. However, his chance will depend upon whether Golkar can
\nunite to support his bid. The candidacy of Jusuf Kalla, a leading
\nGolkar figure, as the running mate of Susilo, could split
\nGolkar's supporters and votes.<\/p>\n
Moreover, Akbar's supporters may have been so disappointed
\nwith the way that Wiranto won the convention -- allegedly through
\nmoney politics, that they may be willing to line up for somebody
\nelse, such as Kalla and Susilo.<\/p>\n
As has been said in my earlier articles in the Post, Wiranto's
\ninternational reputation has been damaged due to allegations of
\nhuman rights violations in East Timor, and the riots in May 1998
\nand the killings of students in the Semanggi I and II incidents
\n(1999 and 2000).<\/p>\n
Civil society, the media and the students are still going
\nafter him. Their protest will definitely become bigger and bigger
\nwith the elections nearing. In the end, the public will be
\nincreasingly aware of the drawbacks of Wiranto's possible
\npresidency. Therefore, one could expect a strong move against him
\nduring the campaign period next month.<\/p>\n
Susilo is the most popular, according to most opinion polls at
\nthis stage of the elections, and has, in Jusuf Kalla, a running
\nmate who is highly respected and could gain backup from a sizable
\nnumber of Golkar supporters.<\/p>\n
If the election were to be held today, Susilo might win. But
\nthe final round could be another four months off, and a lot can
\nhappen before then. Besides which, he has no political machine to
\ntalk of, since the three parties supporting him -- the Democratic
\nParty, the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and Indonesian Justice and
\nUnity Party (PKPI) -- together have just over 11 percent of the
\nvotes (or 69 seats in the House of Representatives).<\/p>\n
If a reasonable number of PDI-P and Golkar supporters split
\nfrom their parties to support Susilo, he would have a good chance
\nof reaching the (possible) final round. Also, if the presidential
\nelection were to be won on individual popularity, Susilo's chance
\nwould be great.<\/p>\n
At the grass-roots level, especially in rural areas, the role
\nof informal or formal leaders in guiding voters' decisions is
\nstill very strong.<\/p>\n
Because civil society and students still do not trust the
\nIndonesian Military (TNI), or generals as presidential
\ncandidates, Susilo has to work hard to gain their trust.
\nOtherwise, he will be considered to be of the same camp as
\nWiranto, which would be bad news for him, especially as he is so
\ndependent on his personal popularity to win the presidency.<\/p>\n
At the aforementioned conference, Susilo made the best speech
\non his platform and future plans. He was quite open to criticism,
\nand defended himself in a straightforward way -- including
\nalleged human rights abuses, and the need to bring the
\nperpetrator to justice.<\/p>\n
Amien Rais is not of the same league as the pairs of
\ncandidates mentioned earlier, especially since Hamzah Haz has
\nalso decided to join the race and may take away some of Amien's
\nsupporters.<\/p>\n
Amien's National Mandate Party (PAN) did not come up strongly
\nin the legislative election, but Muhammadiyah -- the country's
\nsecond largest Muslim organization -- is supporting him.
\nNevertheless, he recognizes that it will be an uphill battle
\nbecause in terms of organization and budget, as well as
\npopularity, Amien has never really gotten off the ground.<\/p>\n
He has improved so much since he emerged as the leader of the
\nreform movement in Indonesia in 1998. In the meantime, he led the
\nteam responsible for amendments to the constitution wisely, and
\nwas mainly responsible for managing Gus Dur's ouster from the
\npresidency, constitutionally and with finesse.<\/p>\n
Amien is also the most consistent of the Muslim leaders
\nagainst global terrorism. His economic platform has improved, but
\nis not yet adequate to gain full trust from the private sector.
\nHis personal staff and entourage have markedly improved, but it
\nis still not easy for him to gain the people's support because of
\nhis past controversial rhetoric and capriciousness.<\/p>\n
Hamzah Haz, leader of the United Development Party (PPP),
\ndecided to run for the presidency after Megawati chose NU
\nchairman Hasyim Muzadi as her running mate. Actually the party
\nwas divided about his decision to run, but in the end they
\nrelented, even though they know his chances were slim.<\/p>\n
Gus Dur also tried hard to join the presidential race, but was
\ndisqualified by the General Elections Commission (KPU) on health
\nreasons. ( paragraph ni akan dicheck lagi sesudah pengumuman KPU
\nSabtu sore atau malam, vin)<\/p>\n
The presidential election will be the first-ever direct
\npresidential election. We don't know which factor will dominate
\nthe people's decision-making. Popularity could be the main
\ninfluence, in which case Susilo would hold the advantage. It
\ncould be that the track record of the party machine has the most
\nbearing, in which case Wiranto would benefit.<\/p>\n
Also, a very strong antimilitarism mood could rein over public
\nopinion, whereby Megawati would benefit. We will get a clearer
\npicture only after the first round, when we should know who the
\nfinalists are going to be.<\/p>\n
The nature of the leadership of the next president will be
\ncritical to the country's future. It is critical that the next
\nfive years will see further policies implemented to overcome the
\ncrisis and get Indonesia moving again. In that sense the
\npresidential election will be even more important than the
\nlegislative one.<\/p>\n
The writer is co-founder and member of the board of trustees
\nof the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/the-presidential-elections-a-prognosis-1447893297",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}