The Godzilla El Niño Phenomenon and Predictions of Prolonged Dry Season in Indonesia
Predictions of a prolonged dry season due to the El Niño phenomenon released by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) are beginning to raise public concerns. However, recent rainfall in several parts of Indonesia has sparked questions: is the threat of “Godzilla El Niño” truly real or merely a missed prediction?
Dosen from the Department of Geophysics and Meteorology at IPB University, Sonni Setiawan, provided clarification on this weather anomaly. According to him, the current rainfall is normal because Indonesia is in a transitional or pancaroba period.
“Because this is still pancaroba, and the start of the season is not uniform across all regions of Indonesia,” Sonni said on Thursday (9/4).
Sonni emphasised that the current rainfall intensity does not invalidate the El Niño prediction. Clear indications of a prolonged dry season remain evident from the trend of rising sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This temperature rise serves as a strong signal for the development of El Niño, which will suppress cloud growth in Indonesian regions.
As a result, this year’s dry season is predicted to arrive earlier and last longer than its normal cycle. While Java Island typically enters the dry season in July, this year it is estimated to occur sooner with a duration of up to six months.
The term “Godzilla” refers to the Super El Niño category. This phenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise extremely, more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal conditions. Historically, this has triggered severe drought disasters and large-scale forest fires.
To understand Indonesia’s current position, here is a comparison of historical data from strong El Niño phenomena with the conditions currently being monitored:
Furthermore, Sonni explained the potential link between the strengthening of El Niño and solar sunspot activity. Based on data analysis, strong El Niño events often appear after the peak of sunspot activity, last estimated to occur in 2025.
“However, the current conditions are honestly still in the weak to moderate category,” he added. He stressed that studies on the relationship between sunspots and El Niño still require long-term data to strengthen comprehensive scientific conclusions.
The public is urged not to be complacent and to continue monitoring official information from the government. Although rain is still falling, this is part of the complex atmospheric circulation dynamics (Walker Circulation) during the transition period, and it does not mean the drought threat has ended.
BMKG estimates the potential for a prolonged dry season due to the El Niño phenomenon to occur this year.
Reviewing the extent of burnt land and the massive impact of forest fires in Indonesia in 2015 due to the extreme El Niño phenomenon or Godzilla El Niño.
Indonesia has experienced the Godzilla El Niño phenomenon in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, which triggered extreme droughts and severe forest and land fires.
The Minister of Agriculture, Andi Amran Sulaiman, stated that the government is preparing a budget of up to Rp4 trillion for the pump irrigation programme as a strategic step to address the potential impacts of El Niño.
Cianjur Regency, West Java, is preparing to face the potential dry season, particularly readiness in the agricultural sector, which is predicted to be affected.
The Purbalingga Regency Government, Central Java, has begun mitigating drought during the 2026 dry season, marked by the Godzilla El Niño phenomenon, through the Purbalingga BPBD.
The NTT Governor has asked all levels of local government to increase preparedness in facing drought risks.
The Ministry of Agriculture (Kementan) assures that Indonesia is ready to face the potential impacts of El Niño, supported by food stocks at the highest level in history.
Horticultural commodities such as chillies and various types of vegetables are expected to be the most affected if prolonged drought occurs.