Predictions of a prolonged dry season due to the El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon\nreleased by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG)\nare beginning to raise public concerns. However, recent rainfall in\nseveral parts of Indonesia has sparked questions: is the threat of\n\u201cGodzilla El Ni\u00f1o\u201d truly real or merely a missed prediction?<\/p>\n
Dosen from the Department of Geophysics and Meteorology at IPB\nUniversity, Sonni Setiawan, provided clarification on this weather\nanomaly. According to him, the current rainfall is normal because\nIndonesia is in a transitional or pancaroba period.<\/p>\n
\u201cBecause this is still pancaroba, and the start of the season is not\nuniform across all regions of Indonesia,\u201d Sonni said on Thursday\n(9\/4).<\/p>\n
Sonni emphasised that the current rainfall intensity does not\ninvalidate the El Ni\u00f1o prediction. Clear indications of a prolonged dry\nseason remain evident from the trend of rising sea surface temperatures\nin the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This temperature rise serves\nas a strong signal for the development of El Ni\u00f1o, which will suppress\ncloud growth in Indonesian regions.<\/p>\n
As a result, this year\u2019s dry season is predicted to arrive earlier\nand last longer than its normal cycle. While Java Island typically\nenters the dry season in July, this year it is estimated to occur sooner\nwith a duration of up to six months.<\/p>\n
The term \u201cGodzilla\u201d refers to the Super El Ni\u00f1o category. This\nphenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean\nrise extremely, more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal conditions.\nHistorically, this has triggered severe drought disasters and\nlarge-scale forest fires.<\/p>\n
To understand Indonesia\u2019s current position, here is a comparison of\nhistorical data from strong El Ni\u00f1o phenomena with the conditions\ncurrently being monitored:<\/p>\n
Furthermore, Sonni explained the potential link between the\nstrengthening of El Ni\u00f1o and solar sunspot activity. Based on data\nanalysis, strong El Ni\u00f1o events often appear after the peak of sunspot\nactivity, last estimated to occur in 2025.<\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, the current conditions are honestly still in the weak to\nmoderate category,\u201d he added. He stressed that studies on the\nrelationship between sunspots and El Ni\u00f1o still require long-term data\nto strengthen comprehensive scientific conclusions.<\/p>\n
The public is urged not to be complacent and to continue monitoring\nofficial information from the government. Although rain is still\nfalling, this is part of the complex atmospheric circulation dynamics\n(Walker Circulation) during the transition period, and it does not mean\nthe drought threat has ended.<\/p>\n
BMKG estimates the potential for a prolonged dry season due to the El\nNi\u00f1o phenomenon to occur this year.<\/p>\n
Reviewing the extent of burnt land and the massive impact of forest\nfires in Indonesia in 2015 due to the extreme El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon or\nGodzilla El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
Indonesia has experienced the Godzilla El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon in\n1997\/1998 and 2015\/2016, which triggered extreme droughts and severe\nforest and land fires.<\/p>\n
The Minister of Agriculture, Andi Amran Sulaiman, stated that the\ngovernment is preparing a budget of up to Rp4 trillion for the pump\nirrigation programme as a strategic step to address the potential\nimpacts of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
Cianjur Regency, West Java, is preparing to face the potential dry\nseason, particularly readiness in the agricultural sector, which is\npredicted to be affected.<\/p>\n
The Purbalingga Regency Government, Central Java, has begun\nmitigating drought during the 2026 dry season, marked by the Godzilla El\nNi\u00f1o phenomenon, through the Purbalingga BPBD.<\/p>\n
The NTT Governor has asked all levels of local government to increase\npreparedness in facing drought risks.<\/p>\n
The Ministry of Agriculture (Kementan) assures that Indonesia is\nready to face the potential impacts of El Ni\u00f1o, supported by food stocks\nat the highest level in history.<\/p>\n
Horticultural commodities such as chillies and various types of\nvegetables are expected to be the most affected if prolonged drought\noccurs.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/the-godzilla-el-nino-phenomenon-and-predictions-of-prolonged-dry-season-in-indonesia-1775699453", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }