Smartphone shipments predicted to plummet 12.9 percent due to memory crisis
Jakarta – Analytics firm International Data Corporation (IDC) has predicted that a global shortage of memory components will cause worldwide smartphone shipments to decline 12.9 percent this year, marking the largest annual decrease in more than a decade.
Shortly after IDC released its report, research firm Counterpoint Research issued a similar projection, estimating the market will decline approximately 12 percent throughout the year.
According to Tech Crunch, IDC previously noted that smartphone manufacturers shipped 1.26 billion units in 2025. This year, that figure is estimated to fall to approximately 1.12 billion units.
“This memory crisis will not only cause a temporary decline; it marks a structural reorganisation of the entire market, which will fundamentally reshape the total addressable market in the long term, the vendor landscape, and the product composition,” said Nabila Popal, Senior Research Director of IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
She added that the condition could potentially trigger market consolidation as smaller players exit the industry, whilst lower-segment vendors face reduced shipments due to supply constraints and weakening demand at higher price points.
Smartphones priced below $100 (approximately IDR 1.6 million) are even considered at risk of becoming permanently uneconomical to manufacture.
By region, IDC estimates that shipments in the Middle East and Africa will decline more than 20 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, China is projected to record a 10.5 percent decline, and the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) will decline 13.1 percent. IDC estimates new RAM prices will begin stabilising by mid-2027.
Counterpoint Principal Analyst Yang Wang stated that the impact of the memory shortage is estimated to continue until the second half of 2027, given that expanding memory supply requires several quarters. He also noted that price increases of 10-20 percent have already occurred on several Android vendor portfolios since January 2026.
Counterpoint added that price instability of new devices could potentially drive growth in the second-hand smartphone market.
Previously, Carl Pei, chief executive and co-founder of consumer electronics brand Nothing, had warned that smartphone prices would increase in 2026 due to rising memory costs.
He stated that manufacturers face a choice between raising prices by up to 30 percent or reducing device specifications, meaning smartphone models offering high specifications at lower prices are considered unable to survive for long.