Rice Production Potentially Down 380,000 Tonnes, BPS Provides This Explanation

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) estimates that national rice production for January to May 2026 will reach 16.57 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.38 million tonnes (2.22%) compared to the same period in 2025. This decline is occurring alongside weakening paddy (unhusked rice) production, influenced by a reduction in harvested area, as well as conditions related to the planted area at the beginning of the year.

In detail, BPS records paddy production (dried milled unhusked rice/GKG) for January to May 2026 at 28.77 million tonnes, down 0.65 million tonnes or 2.22% from the same period the previous year. In February 2026, paddy production temporarily increased to 5.05 million tonnes GKG, up 27.41% year-on-year, but the forward trend is expected to weaken.

BPS estimates the potential paddy production for March to May 2026 at 20.68 million tonnes GKG, or a 11.12% decline compared to the same period in 2025. This reduction is the main factor pressuring rice production during that period.

“Thus, paddy production for January to May 2026 is estimated to reach 28.77 million tonnes GKG, experiencing a decrease of 0.65 million tonnes GKG, or a 2.22% decline compared to the same period in 2025,” stated Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, Ateng Hartono, during a press conference on Wednesday (1/4/2026).

The decline in unhusked rice production is inseparable from the dynamics of paddy harvested area. In February 2026, the harvested area was recorded at 0.94 million hectares, up 23.62% from February 2025. However, for subsequent periods, BPS estimates a correction.

The potential harvested area for March to May 2026 is estimated at only 3.85 million hectares, down 10.60% from the same period the previous year. Cumulatively, the harvested area for January to May 2026 is estimated at 5.35 million hectares, or a 2.35% year-on-year decline.

“These potential figures may still change depending on crop conditions, such as pest attacks, floods, droughts, to shifts in harvest timing by farmers,” he said.

Further upstream, Ateng explained that this situation is related to the paddy planted area, as reflected in observations from the Area Sample Framework (KSA). In February 2026, the majority of the land was in the standing crop phase or being planted with paddy at 51.79%.

Additionally, land planted with non-paddy crops was recorded at 20.80%, being harvested at 11.82%, fallow/left idle at 7.72%, and land preparation at 7.54%. From the total standing crop, the majority had entered the generative phase at 25.34%, which is generally harvested in March 2026.

“Paddy plants in the generative phase are generally harvested one month ahead,” said Ateng.

BPS assesses that the composition of planting phases directly influences the potential harvest in the coming months, thereby determining the dynamics of unhusked rice and rice production.

In addition to planting factors, weather conditions are also a concern. Based on BMKG analysis, rainfall in February 2026 was generally in the medium category, deemed sufficient to support crop growth, but still potentially affecting harvest yields depending on its distribution in each region.

BPS also maps locations with potential paddy harvests for March to May 2026, which remain concentrated in several major areas. On Java Island, the largest potential is in East Java, Central Java, West Java, and Banten.

Meanwhile, in Sumatra, it is in Lampung, South Sumatra, North Sumatra, and Aceh. In other regions, it is spread across South Sulawesi, West and South Kalimantan, as well as West and East Nusa Tenggara.

At the regency/city level, relatively large harvest potentials include Bojonegoro, Lamongan, Tuban, Nganjuk, Jember, Indramayu, Subang, Karawang, to Cilacap and Pati.

In line with that, rice production for February 2026 is estimated at 2.91 million tonnes, up 27.37% from February 2025. However, for March to May 2026, rice production is projected to decline to 11.91 million tonnes, or 11.11% year-on-year.

Thus, overall rice production for January to May 2026 is estimated at 16.57 million tonnes, down 2.22% from the previous year, following the decline on the paddy production and harvested area side.

NTP Slightly Down, Rice Prices Up

On the farmer welfare side, BPS records the Farmers’ Exchange Rate (NTP) for March 2026 at 125.35, or a slight decline of 0.08% from February 2026.

“The NTP decline occurred because the price index received by farmers rose by 0.33%, lower than the price index paid by farmers which rose by 0.41%,” Ateng explained.

The deepest decline occurred in the horticulture subsector, down 0.67%, triggered by falling prices of commodities such as shallots, red chillies, and carrots.

Meanwhile, rice prices experienced an increase across the entire distribution chain. At the milling level, rice prices rose 0.54% month-on-month (mtm) and 5.66% year-on-year (yoy). Premium rice rose higher, namely 1.8% (mtm) and 9.57% (yoy).

At the wholesale level, rice inflation was recorded at 0.95% (mtm) and 4.81% (yoy), while at the retail level, it rose 0.65% (mtm) and 3.71% (yoy).

Ateng emphasised that the price data is the national average covering various rice qualities across all regions in Indonesia.