Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The Central Statistics Agency (BPS)\nestimates that national rice production for January to May 2026 will\nreach 16.57 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.38 million tonnes (2.22%)\ncompared to the same period in 2025. This decline is occurring alongside\nweakening paddy (unhusked rice) production, influenced by a reduction in\nharvested area, as well as conditions related to the planted area at the\nbeginning of the year.<\/p>\n
In detail, BPS records paddy production (dried milled unhusked\nrice\/GKG) for January to May 2026 at 28.77 million tonnes, down 0.65\nmillion tonnes or 2.22% from the same period the previous year. In\nFebruary 2026, paddy production temporarily increased to 5.05 million\ntonnes GKG, up 27.41% year-on-year, but the forward trend is expected to\nweaken.<\/p>\n
BPS estimates the potential paddy production for March to May 2026 at\n20.68 million tonnes GKG, or a 11.12% decline compared to the same\nperiod in 2025. This reduction is the main factor pressuring rice\nproduction during that period.<\/p>\n
\u201cThus, paddy production for January to May 2026 is estimated to reach\n28.77 million tonnes GKG, experiencing a decrease of 0.65 million tonnes\nGKG, or a 2.22% decline compared to the same period in 2025,\u201d stated\nDeputy for Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, Ateng Hartono,\nduring a press conference on Wednesday (1\/4\/2026).<\/p>\n
The decline in unhusked rice production is inseparable from the\ndynamics of paddy harvested area. In February 2026, the harvested area\nwas recorded at 0.94 million hectares, up 23.62% from February 2025.\nHowever, for subsequent periods, BPS estimates a correction.<\/p>\n
The potential harvested area for March to May 2026 is estimated at\nonly 3.85 million hectares, down 10.60% from the same period the\nprevious year. Cumulatively, the harvested area for January to May 2026\nis estimated at 5.35 million hectares, or a 2.35% year-on-year\ndecline.<\/p>\n
\u201cThese potential figures may still change depending on crop\nconditions, such as pest attacks, floods, droughts, to shifts in harvest\ntiming by farmers,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Further upstream, Ateng explained that this situation is related to\nthe paddy planted area, as reflected in observations from the Area\nSample Framework (KSA). In February 2026, the majority of the land was\nin the standing crop phase or being planted with paddy at 51.79%.<\/p>\n
Additionally, land planted with non-paddy crops was recorded at\n20.80%, being harvested at 11.82%, fallow\/left idle at 7.72%, and land\npreparation at 7.54%. From the total standing crop, the majority had\nentered the generative phase at 25.34%, which is generally harvested in\nMarch 2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cPaddy plants in the generative phase are generally harvested one\nmonth ahead,\u201d said Ateng.<\/p>\n
BPS assesses that the composition of planting phases directly\ninfluences the potential harvest in the coming months, thereby\ndetermining the dynamics of unhusked rice and rice production.<\/p>\n
In addition to planting factors, weather conditions are also a\nconcern. Based on BMKG analysis, rainfall in February 2026 was generally\nin the medium category, deemed sufficient to support crop growth, but\nstill potentially affecting harvest yields depending on its distribution\nin each region.<\/p>\n
BPS also maps locations with potential paddy harvests for March to\nMay 2026, which remain concentrated in several major areas. On Java\nIsland, the largest potential is in East Java, Central Java, West Java,\nand Banten.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, in Sumatra, it is in Lampung, South Sumatra, North\nSumatra, and Aceh. In other regions, it is spread across South Sulawesi,\nWest and South Kalimantan, as well as West and East Nusa Tenggara.<\/p>\n
At the regency\/city level, relatively large harvest potentials\ninclude Bojonegoro, Lamongan, Tuban, Nganjuk, Jember, Indramayu, Subang,\nKarawang, to Cilacap and Pati.<\/p>\n
In line with that, rice production for February 2026 is estimated at\n2.91 million tonnes, up 27.37% from February 2025. However, for March to\nMay 2026, rice production is projected to decline to 11.91 million\ntonnes, or 11.11% year-on-year.<\/p>\n
Thus, overall rice production for January to May 2026 is estimated at\n16.57 million tonnes, down 2.22% from the previous year, following the\ndecline on the paddy production and harvested area side.<\/p>\n
NTP Slightly Down, Rice Prices Up<\/p>\n
On the farmer welfare side, BPS records the Farmers\u2019 Exchange Rate\n(NTP) for March 2026 at 125.35, or a slight decline of 0.08% from\nFebruary 2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe NTP decline occurred because the price index received by farmers\nrose by 0.33%, lower than the price index paid by farmers which rose by\n0.41%,\u201d Ateng explained.<\/p>\n
The deepest decline occurred in the horticulture subsector, down\n0.67%, triggered by falling prices of commodities such as shallots, red\nchillies, and carrots.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, rice prices experienced an increase across the entire\ndistribution chain. At the milling level, rice prices rose 0.54%\nmonth-on-month (mtm) and 5.66% year-on-year (yoy). Premium rice rose\nhigher, namely 1.8% (mtm) and 9.57% (yoy).<\/p>\n
At the wholesale level, rice inflation was recorded at 0.95% (mtm)\nand 4.81% (yoy), while at the retail level, it rose 0.65% (mtm) and\n3.71% (yoy).<\/p>\n
Ateng emphasised that the price data is the national average covering\nvarious rice qualities across all regions in Indonesia.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/rice-production-potentially-down-380-000-tonnes-bps-provides-this-explanation-1775026257", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }