Prediction for 2028: AI Becomes Smarter, Crises and Unemployment Rise
The development of Artificial Intelligence technology does not always lead to a rosy outcome. In fact, not far from now, AI will make the world bleak by 2028, with an economic crisis, difficult job markets, and rising unemployment occurring.
This prediction of a 2028 crisis due to AI is not mere fantasy. It is an experiment devised by the investment research firm Citrini Research along with analyst Alap Shah in a report titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis”.
From the outset, Citrini Research states that their report is not a definite prediction, let alone an exaggerated doomsday narrative.
Their report is a thought experiment, a simulation of extreme risks if AI truly exceeds expectations and replaces humans too quickly before the economic system has time to adapt.
So, how can AI’s success become a boomerang that destroys the global economy? Here is the anatomy of the crisis, as summarised by KompasTekno from the Citrini Research website.
It all begins with a golden age filled with blind euphoria. In 2026, the global economy appears to be at the peak of its glory thanks to increasingly sophisticated and efficient AI.
Positive sentiment towards AI causes stocks to rise continuously over a long period, with the technology sector as the main driver. The optimistic atmosphere is strongly felt. Investors are highly enthusiastic, and the market is full of confidence.
By October 2026, the US stock market is in a frenzy. The US stock indices soar to levels previously unimaginable.
The S&P 500 index of 500 large US companies approaches 8,000. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq index comfortably breaks through the psychological barrier of 30,000.
At the same time, the first wave of layoffs begins in early 2026.
Many companies reduce their workforce because certain functions are deemed replaceable by AI systems and automation. The term circulating at the time sounds cold: human obsolescence, where humans are considered increasingly obsolete in some lines of work.
The roles of office workers begin to be massively replaced by overly efficient AI agents.
For shareholders, this phenomenon is an invaluable blessing. Business logic works perfectly on paper. Mass layoffs mean radical cuts in operational costs.
The result? Company profit margins expand rapidly, revenue reports continuously exceed expectations, and share prices skyrocket.
However, the trillions of dollars in record-breaking profits are not used to create new jobs for humans.
The massive funds are instead recycled and poured entirely into buying more AI computing power, more GPUs, and more data centre infrastructure.
This cycle creates the illusion that the economy is running faster, when in fact its basic foundation (real human consumption) is starting to crumble.
On paper, nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures do grow rapidly.
AI-based companies see their wealth explode as labour costs disappear. On the other hand, productivity surges. Real output per hour rises at levels not seen since the 1950s.
This is all supported by AI agents that never sleep, do not need holidays, do not get sick, and do not demand health insurance.
However, behind this “too good to be true” situation, there is one fundamental flaw that is overlooked. Machines do not shop. AI will not shop for essential needs, let alone discretionary consumption.
Essential needs themselves include things like rice, electricity, water, and school fees.
Meanwhile, discretionary consumption is spending on non-essential or non-urgent needs, different from basic needs. Examples include holidays, attending concerts, buying a smartphone when the old one still works, eating at expensive restaurants, and buying luxury goods (bags, clothes, watches).
The bitter fact is that 70 percent of the economy is supported by human consumption. When a cluster of GPUs in a data centre can produce output equivalent to 10,000 office workers, it is not a miracle cure for the economy, but rather a pandemic.
At this point, economists begin to popularise the term “Ghost GDP” or Ghost GDP. This is a phenomenon where production output is recorded high in national accounts, but the money never circulates in the real economy.