The development of Artificial Intelligence technology does not always\nlead to a rosy outcome. In fact, not far from now, AI will make the\nworld bleak by 2028, with an economic crisis, difficult job markets, and\nrising unemployment occurring.<\/p>\n
This prediction of a 2028 crisis due to AI is not mere fantasy. It is\nan experiment devised by the investment research firm Citrini Research\nalong with analyst Alap Shah in a report titled \u201cThe 2028 Global\nIntelligence Crisis\u201d.<\/p>\n
From the outset, Citrini Research states that their report is not a\ndefinite prediction, let alone an exaggerated doomsday narrative.<\/p>\n
Their report is a thought experiment, a simulation of extreme risks\nif AI truly exceeds expectations and replaces humans too quickly before\nthe economic system has time to adapt.<\/p>\n
So, how can AI\u2019s success become a boomerang that destroys the global\neconomy? Here is the anatomy of the crisis, as summarised by KompasTekno\nfrom the Citrini Research website.<\/p>\n
It all begins with a golden age filled with blind euphoria. In 2026,\nthe global economy appears to be at the peak of its glory thanks to\nincreasingly sophisticated and efficient AI.<\/p>\n
Positive sentiment towards AI causes stocks to rise continuously over\na long period, with the technology sector as the main driver. The\noptimistic atmosphere is strongly felt. Investors are highly\nenthusiastic, and the market is full of confidence.<\/p>\n
By October 2026, the US stock market is in a frenzy. The US stock\nindices soar to levels previously unimaginable.<\/p>\n
The S&P 500 index of 500 large US companies approaches 8,000.\nMeanwhile, the Nasdaq index comfortably breaks through the psychological\nbarrier of 30,000.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the first wave of layoffs begins in early 2026.<\/p>\n
Many companies reduce their workforce because certain functions are\ndeemed replaceable by AI systems and automation. The term circulating at\nthe time sounds cold: human obsolescence, where humans are considered\nincreasingly obsolete in some lines of work.<\/p>\n
The roles of office workers begin to be massively replaced by overly\nefficient AI agents.<\/p>\n
For shareholders, this phenomenon is an invaluable blessing. Business\nlogic works perfectly on paper. Mass layoffs mean radical cuts in\noperational costs.<\/p>\n
The result? Company profit margins expand rapidly, revenue reports\ncontinuously exceed expectations, and share prices skyrocket.<\/p>\n
However, the trillions of dollars in record-breaking profits are not\nused to create new jobs for humans.<\/p>\n
The massive funds are instead recycled and poured entirely into\nbuying more AI computing power, more GPUs, and more data centre\ninfrastructure.<\/p>\n
This cycle creates the illusion that the economy is running faster,\nwhen in fact its basic foundation (real human consumption) is starting\nto crumble.<\/p>\n
On paper, nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures do grow\nrapidly.<\/p>\n
AI-based companies see their wealth explode as labour costs\ndisappear. On the other hand, productivity surges. Real output per hour\nrises at levels not seen since the 1950s.<\/p>\n
This is all supported by AI agents that never sleep, do not need\nholidays, do not get sick, and do not demand health insurance.<\/p>\n
However, behind this \u201ctoo good to be true\u201d situation, there is one\nfundamental flaw that is overlooked. Machines do not shop. AI will not\nshop for essential needs, let alone discretionary consumption.<\/p>\n
Essential needs themselves include things like rice, electricity,\nwater, and school fees.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, discretionary consumption is spending on non-essential or\nnon-urgent needs, different from basic needs. Examples include holidays,\nattending concerts, buying a smartphone when the old one still works,\neating at expensive restaurants, and buying luxury goods (bags, clothes,\nwatches).<\/p>\n
The bitter fact is that 70 percent of the economy is supported by\nhuman consumption. When a cluster of GPUs in a data centre can produce\noutput equivalent to 10,000 office workers, it is not a miracle cure for\nthe economy, but rather a pandemic.<\/p>\n
At this point, economists begin to popularise the term \u201cGhost GDP\u201d or\nGhost GDP. This is a phenomenon where production output is recorded high\nin national accounts, but the money never circulates in the real\neconomy.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/prediction-for-2028-ai-becomes-smarter-crises-and-unemployment-rise-1776916405", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }