Pattern of political coalitions in 2004

Pattern of political coalitions in 2004

Muhammad Qodari, Director of Research Indonesian Survey Institute,
(LSI), Jakarta

qodari@hotmail.com

Political coalitions will be inevitable for political parties
in the 2004 elections and afterwards. It is also a political
necessity for the president and vice president, who seek to win
and remain in office until 2009.

What would be the possible pattern of political coalitions in
the 2004 presidential election? How do the political laws affect
the coalition?

The most important legal document is the 1945 Constitution,
which has been amended four times since 1999. These amendments
have affected the possible pattern of coalitions. The
constitution, for example, stipulates that the president and vice
president be elected directly by 140 million eligible voters, and
no longer by members of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

It also stipulates that the impeachment of the president
and/or vice president be proposed by the House of Representatives
(DPR) to the MPR, but the proposal should first be examined,
assessed and decided upon by the Constitutional Court. Apart from
the Court's decision, the proposal must be approved by at least
two-thirds of House members present at the session, at which two-
thirds of total House members must be present.

Therefore, any president and/or vice president from a party or
combination of parties that control more than a third of House
seats will be able to contain any political move to impeach them
during their term.

Who will be Megawati Soekarnoputri's running mate?

In 2004, prior to the legislative election, all major parties
may still nominate party leaders as their presidential candidate.
However, soon after the announcement of the legislative election
results, each party would seek to join forces with another party.
Candidates from a bigger party, in terms of the number of seats
it has gained in the DPR, would forward the presidential nominee,
while the smaller party's candidate would be the running mate.

The formation of coalitions next year, particularly the one
formed with the biggest party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of
Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and its chairman-cum-incumbent
president Megawati, will be strongly influenced by the
impeachment process.

PDI Perjuangan and Megawati will try to find a running mate
that would help the duo secure more than 183 House seats -- or a
third of the total 550 seats in the future House.

Excluding the 38 appointed members from the armed forces, PDI
Perjuangan presently controls 33.1 percent of House seats. Golkar
controls 26 percent, while the National Awakening Party (PKB) has
11 percent, the United Development Party (PPP) has 12.5 percent
and the National Mandate Party (PAN) has 7.3 percent.

Taking into account that the distribution of seats in 2004
will resemble that of the 1999 election, PDI Perjuangan will be
able to form a coalition with any party and candidate it wishes
to, since the party already controls a third of the House.

Thus, PDI Perjuangan's most natural ally would be the Golkar
party, which shares the same ideological line, and Golkar would
remain the second biggest party.

However, Golkar's current chairman is Akbar Tandjung, who has
been sentenced to three years for alleged misuse of funds
belonging to the State Logistics Agency (Bulog), but is free
pending an appeal to the Supreme Court. Because this is a direct
presidential election, Akbar's conviction would negatively
influence voters.

Thus, Megawati will not want to risk her chance by selecting
Akbar, as he would jeopardize her bid for presidency. Megawati
may prefer to retain Hamzah Haz, the current vice president and
chairman of PPP, the third biggest party in the House. The idea
of maintaining the Megawati-Hamzah duo has been mentioned several
times already by PDI Perjuangan legislators, such as Roy B.B.
Janis and Pramono Anung Wibowo.

However, Megawati may opt for an alternative candidate, such
as Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. If Megawati wants to boost her chances
of winning, she may have to consider Susilo.

Why? A recent poll by the research center CESDA-LP3ES showed
that any presidential candidate that joins hands with Susilo
would gain a significant increase in popularity.

Another advantage of choosing Susilo as her vice president
would be their similar ideological background, as opposed to
Islamist Hamzah Haz. Susilo has proven himself to be a competent
senior minister with managerial skills. This would benefit to
Megawati, who has assumed the role of "solidarity maker".
Unfortunately, Susilo is not a party leader, and this is a
political disadvantage as he does not control House seats through
his supporting party -- at least for the time being.

Other possible coalitions are difficult to foresee for the
moment, but the criteria for the formation of coalitions in 2004
is clear.

First, candidates and political parties will seek a coalition
that will result in at least 183 House seats to secure the
presidency.

Second, of the parties forming the coalition, the presidential
candidate will be nominated by the bigger political party in
terms of the number of House seats it holds, and the vice
presidential candidate will come from the smaller one.

Third, any aspiring candidate will try to find the most
attractive partner, choosing one that will help increase their
own popularity, to form the winning combination.

The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) is a newly established
independent institution dedicated to survey and research. The
results of the first national poll on Indonesian politics will be
published later this month.