Pattern of political coalitions in 2004<\/p>\n
Muhammad Qodari, Director of Research Indonesian Survey Institute,
\n(LSI), Jakarta<\/p>\n
qodari@hotmail.com<\/p>\n
Political coalitions will be inevitable for political parties
\nin the 2004 elections and afterwards. It is also a political
\nnecessity for the president and vice president, who seek to win
\nand remain in office until 2009.<\/p>\n
What would be the possible pattern of political coalitions in
\nthe 2004 presidential election? How do the political laws affect
\nthe coalition?<\/p>\n
The most important legal document is the 1945 Constitution,
\nwhich has been amended four times since 1999. These amendments
\nhave affected the possible pattern of coalitions. The
\nconstitution, for example, stipulates that the president and vice
\npresident be elected directly by 140 million eligible voters, and
\nno longer by members of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).<\/p>\n
It also stipulates that the impeachment of the president
\nand\/or vice president be proposed by the House of Representatives
\n(DPR) to the MPR, but the proposal should first be examined,
\nassessed and decided upon by the Constitutional Court. Apart from
\nthe Court's decision, the proposal must be approved by at least
\ntwo-thirds of House members present at the session, at which two-
\nthirds of total House members must be present.<\/p>\n
Therefore, any president and\/or vice president from a party or
\ncombination of parties that control more than a third of House
\nseats will be able to contain any political move to impeach them
\nduring their term.<\/p>\n
Who will be Megawati Soekarnoputri's running mate?<\/p>\n
In 2004, prior to the legislative election, all major parties
\nmay still nominate party leaders as their presidential candidate.
\nHowever, soon after the announcement of the legislative election
\nresults, each party would seek to join forces with another party.
\nCandidates from a bigger party, in terms of the number of seats
\nit has gained in the DPR, would forward the presidential nominee,
\nwhile the smaller party's candidate would be the running mate.<\/p>\n
The formation of coalitions next year, particularly the one
\nformed with the biggest party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of
\nStruggle (PDI Perjuangan) and its chairman-cum-incumbent
\npresident Megawati, will be strongly influenced by the
\nimpeachment process.<\/p>\n
PDI Perjuangan and Megawati will try to find a running mate
\nthat would help the duo secure more than 183 House seats -- or a
\nthird of the total 550 seats in the future House.<\/p>\n
Excluding the 38 appointed members from the armed forces, PDI
\nPerjuangan presently controls 33.1 percent of House seats. Golkar
\ncontrols 26 percent, while the National Awakening Party (PKB) has
\n11 percent, the United Development Party (PPP) has 12.5 percent
\nand the National Mandate Party (PAN) has 7.3 percent.<\/p>\n
Taking into account that the distribution of seats in 2004
\nwill resemble that of the 1999 election, PDI Perjuangan will be
\nable to form a coalition with any party and candidate it wishes
\nto, since the party already controls a third of the House.<\/p>\n
Thus, PDI Perjuangan's most natural ally would be the Golkar
\nparty, which shares the same ideological line, and Golkar would
\nremain the second biggest party.<\/p>\n
However, Golkar's current chairman is Akbar Tandjung, who has
\nbeen sentenced to three years for alleged misuse of funds
\nbelonging to the State Logistics Agency (Bulog), but is free
\npending an appeal to the Supreme Court. Because this is a direct
\npresidential election, Akbar's conviction would negatively
\ninfluence voters.<\/p>\n
Thus, Megawati will not want to risk her chance by selecting
\nAkbar, as he would jeopardize her bid for presidency. Megawati
\nmay prefer to retain Hamzah Haz, the current vice president and
\nchairman of PPP, the third biggest party in the House. The idea
\nof maintaining the Megawati-Hamzah duo has been mentioned several
\ntimes already by PDI Perjuangan legislators, such as Roy B.B.
\nJanis and Pramono Anung Wibowo.<\/p>\n
However, Megawati may opt for an alternative candidate, such
\nas Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs
\nSusilo Bambang Yudhoyono. If Megawati wants to boost her chances
\nof winning, she may have to consider Susilo.<\/p>\n
Why? A recent poll by the research center CESDA-LP3ES showed
\nthat any presidential candidate that joins hands with Susilo
\nwould gain a significant increase in popularity.<\/p>\n
Another advantage of choosing Susilo as her vice president
\nwould be their similar ideological background, as opposed to
\nIslamist Hamzah Haz. Susilo has proven himself to be a competent
\nsenior minister with managerial skills. This would benefit to
\nMegawati, who has assumed the role of "solidarity maker".
\nUnfortunately, Susilo is not a party leader, and this is a
\npolitical disadvantage as he does not control House seats through
\nhis supporting party -- at least for the time being.<\/p>\n
Other possible coalitions are difficult to foresee for the
\nmoment, but the criteria for the formation of coalitions in 2004
\nis clear.<\/p>\n
First, candidates and political parties will seek a coalition
\nthat will result in at least 183 House seats to secure the
\npresidency.<\/p>\n
Second, of the parties forming the coalition, the presidential
\ncandidate will be nominated by the bigger political party in
\nterms of the number of House seats it holds, and the vice
\npresidential candidate will come from the smaller one.<\/p>\n
Third, any aspiring candidate will try to find the most
\nattractive partner, choosing one that will help increase their
\nown popularity, to form the winning combination.<\/p>\n
The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) is a newly established
\nindependent institution dedicated to survey and research. The
\nresults of the first national poll on Indonesian politics will be
\npublished later this month.<\/p>",
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