Megawati's silence could cost her greatly

Megawati's silence could cost her greatly

Indonesia's major partners, including Japan, the biggest
lender and largest investor in Indonesia, is ready to cooperate
with President Megawati Soekarnoputri's administration, says
Takashi Shiraishi, a prominent Indonesian observer at Kyoto
University. The writer of Indonesia, the Nation and Politics and
Sukarno and Suharto shared his thoughts with The Jakarta Post's
reporter Kornelius Purba on Wednesday during his visit to
Jakarta.

Question: How would you view the reaction of the international
community towards the rise of Megawati?
Answer: There are no surprises with her appointment, and other
international friends, including the United States, Japan and
other western countries, have been already in touch with (people
likely to join) the new administration, because they knew this
was coming.
There are concerns here over the President's capabilities. Your
comment?

I think it is unfair to ask about her capability when she has
not really been tested yet. She has shown very strong leadership
in the past few months. When the Indonesian government reduced
the subsidy for fuel prices, it was clearly her decision. There's
no question about her capability in making major decisions. The
only thing that worries me ... is the question of character, the
nature of Ibu Megawati. She tends to take more time than many
people hope she would in making decisions. And she also tends to
be rather taciturn, so many people who have access to her wonder
what she's really thinking.

She has been silent for the last few days since she became
President. People have had no idea what kind of Cabinet she is
going to establish, we have no idea about the priorities she
wants. I hope that she can tell us what her priorities are, and
what she is going to do.
How about Megawati's inner circle?

The political system in Indonesia has changed ... clearly now
there is no longer a strong presidential system; you have a very
weak presidential system with aspects of a parliamentary system
contained within it.

There are three major power centers now, so the President
forms only one of these, the House of Representatives (DPR) being
another. Even though many may disagree with me, in fact the
headquarters of the Indonesian Military (TNI), has also emerged
as a power center within its own group.

Now you have three power centers, and the President simply
cannot run the government, let alone survive, without support
from the DPR and TNI Headquarters. It is no longer just one
person as the center of power.

About Megawati's inner circle, in any political system,
especially in this country, it exists. Many say this is Javanese,
but this is more due to the presidential system. You have two
different systems: an official Cabinet structure and a "kitchen
Cabinet" -- people who have direct access to the President,
anytime and at any place.

And they naturally give advice and suggestions according to
the formal structure. This happened under president Soeharto,
where decisions were made at Bina Graha or at his private
residence on Jl. Cendana. During Abdurrahman Wahid's presidency,
there were also people with direct access to him. It was
interesting to see kyai walking in sandals at the palace ...

In contrast with Abdurrahman, the number of people having
direct and very good access to President Megawati is very
limited. And the President has a very strong adviser, namely
Bambang Kesowo, who reminds me of Pak Sudharmono, Soeharto's
state secretary and Bambang's former mentor.

In a sense the system, the relationship between the formal
Cabinet structure with the President and the "kitchen Cabinet"
reminds me of the old days of president Soeharto. So we should
naturally expect that the decision-making process will be very
complex. You now have the Cabinet, the DPR, the military and a
"kitchen Cabinet". And all these institutions will do their best
to advise and influence Ibu Megawati, and so on.

If she remains silent many will be confused; it is really
important that the President explains what she thinks are her
priorities in her own language, not just through a statement
written by somebody else ... And naturally, depending on what
kind of question she needs to address, you would expect different
types of people playing a major role.

Especially in macroeconomic management, all of us hope
that ... those professionals who enjoy international credibility,
will be appointed as economic minister, coordinating minister for
the economy, finance minister, governor of the central bank and
to the chair of the National Development Planning Agency.

The market hopes the President will make the right decisions.
If not, the market will react negatively, and that will be bad
for the economy.

For security affairs, the relationship with the military will
be the key. And I tend to believe the President has already
developed a good relationship with the conservative wing of the
Army, represented by Army Chief Gen. Endriartono Sutarto.

I may be wrong, but I believe that he will lead TNI. The
military could well be under the control of conservative
generals. The kind of reformist agenda that was very important
under B.J. Habibie's and Abdurrahman's administrations will be
lost.

The relationship between the military and Megawati will be
stable, while at the same time the military will remain more-or-
less as it is. And it is up to you to decide whether that is a
good thing or not.
But Megawati and also her supporters once suffered from military
oppression.

Certainly she suffered under Soeharto, but from her
perspective (the perpetrators) are individuals, rogue elements,
not the military institution per se that made her and the people
suffer ... Her silence on the commemoration of the July 27
tragedy (the violent takeover of her party headquarters in
Jakarta in July 1996), which occurred just a few days after she
became president, shows that (such issues) are not the kind of
questions she wants to address.
People still have a very negative perception on the military.

We can see that now the military has emerged at the center of
power. It played a decisive role in the defeat of Abdurrahman
Wahid.

It is also important to see that soldiers on the ground are
not really doing what they are told to do. Sometimes the soldiers
turn out to be like "machines", or (become) a "mafia" because
they cannot survive. Just ask low-ranking soldiers, not the high-
and middle-ranking officers, about their life.

Their life is very tough. Their monthly payment may be only
enough for one week. They need to supplement their income. In the
past their commanders took care of them, because there were many
foundations that ran businesses or joint ventures, and that was a
source of funds for the commanders to take care of their
soldiers.

Many of the foundation's businesses became bankrupt during the
economic crisis. So the commanders could not really take care of
their soldiers ... (who became) involved in drug trafficking, or
even became becak (pedicab) drivers.
What's your view of the election of Hamzah Haz, chairman of an
Islamic party, the United Development Party (PPP) as Vice
President?

It is clear that Indonesia is more Islamic now compared with
50 years ago, even compared with 30 years ago. And ... the
contrasting inclination (is that) one group of people, slightly
more than 60 percent, tend to be "more secular." Not just
Muslims, as Christians can also be secular.

There are people who worry about Islam, but there is also a
quite sizable number of people who want to see the country based
on Islamic values. It is quite natural to see this combination.
(Because) the House is now very important as a power center, to
make sure that Ibu Megawati secures a majority in the House it is
quite natural for Megawati and her Indonesian Democratic Party of
Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) to seek support from the (Muslim-
oriented) axis force.

... Even in the recent past Pak Amien Rais (the People's
Consultative Assembly Speaker) supported Abdurrahman and then
became his fiercest opponent. I am not surprised that currently
the President enjoys the support of Amien, and her return to
power is also thanks to Amien. (Hamzah's becoming vice president)
will be insurance (for the support of PPP for Megawati's
presidency); Amien's coalition is weaker now as (a member of the)
largest faction in the group (the axis force) has now become the
vice president.

I am not saying this will really happen, but I am looking with
interest that, given the fact that Megawati tends to be rather
quiet, it ... (may be) really difficult not only for foreigners
but also for the Jakarta elite to have access to the President.

I wonder whether these people will seek access to Vice
President Hamzah Haz who is more accessible, and therefore I
wonder if it may turn out that the Vice President outshines the
President for the simple reason that the President is very quiet
and that it is may be more difficult to have access to her.
In the last three years Indonesia has become a liability in the
region.

Let me talk about the relationship between Japan and
Indonesia. There is no question that it will be a big plus if
Indonesia returns to a healthy state and achieves stability under
this democratic presidential system. I do not think that we want
to see the country returned to authoritarian rule again.

Again there are a lot of, not really worries, but rather
confusion, simply because Megawati remains silent.

I understand the President is scheduled to visit the United
States, Beijing and Tokyo in September. I think this is a very
important opportunity; if she goes to Tokyo, she will see Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has just won the upper house
elections. The Japanese private sector is really important for
the Indonesian economy.

I expect the President to see the business leaders at
Kaidanren (Chamber of Commerce) when she visits Tokyo. It should
be a very good chance for her to explain her plans, her
priorities. Otherwise if she remains quiet, and just smiles and
shake hands, it will be very disappointing.

I am just underlining that if Indonesia restores stability,
regains its legitimacy, it could again be at the center of ASEAN
(Association of Southeast Asian Nations). Its population is half
of ASEAN and its territory is very large.

Actually, the domestic agenda is the most important. My sense
is that the government needs to spell out its priorities. We also
know there are broad questions, but everybody will be watching
the economic team. We are deeply concerned about how it will
manage the budget and the exchange rate.

The very basic requirement is price stability. If you succeed
in keeping down inflation, keeping the budget totals at
relatively the same (rupiah value) level, then foreign investors,
and also domestic investors, can expect a return on their
investment.