Megawati's silence could cost her greatly<\/p>\n
Indonesia's major partners, including Japan, the biggest
\nlender and largest investor in Indonesia, is ready to cooperate
\nwith President Megawati Soekarnoputri's administration, says
\nTakashi Shiraishi, a prominent Indonesian observer at Kyoto
\nUniversity. The writer of Indonesia, the Nation and Politics and
\nSukarno and Suharto shared his thoughts with The Jakarta Post's
\nreporter Kornelius Purba on Wednesday during his visit to
\nJakarta.<\/p>\n
Question: How would you view the reaction of the international
\ncommunity towards the rise of Megawati?
\nAnswer: There are no surprises with her appointment, and other
\ninternational friends, including the United States, Japan and
\nother western countries, have been already in touch with (people
\nlikely to join) the new administration, because they knew this
\nwas coming.
\nThere are concerns here over the President's capabilities. Your
\ncomment?<\/p>\n
I think it is unfair to ask about her capability when she has
\nnot really been tested yet. She has shown very strong leadership
\nin the past few months. When the Indonesian government reduced
\nthe subsidy for fuel prices, it was clearly her decision. There's
\nno question about her capability in making major decisions. The
\nonly thing that worries me ... is the question of character, the
\nnature of Ibu Megawati. She tends to take more time than many
\npeople hope she would in making decisions. And she also tends to
\nbe rather taciturn, so many people who have access to her wonder
\nwhat she's really thinking.<\/p>\n
She has been silent for the last few days since she became
\nPresident. People have had no idea what kind of Cabinet she is
\ngoing to establish, we have no idea about the priorities she
\nwants. I hope that she can tell us what her priorities are, and
\nwhat she is going to do.
\nHow about Megawati's inner circle?<\/p>\n
The political system in Indonesia has changed ... clearly now
\nthere is no longer a strong presidential system; you have a very
\nweak presidential system with aspects of a parliamentary system
\ncontained within it.<\/p>\n
There are three major power centers now, so the President
\nforms only one of these, the House of Representatives (DPR) being
\nanother. Even though many may disagree with me, in fact the
\nheadquarters of the Indonesian Military (TNI), has also emerged
\nas a power center within its own group.<\/p>\n
Now you have three power centers, and the President simply
\ncannot run the government, let alone survive, without support
\nfrom the DPR and TNI Headquarters. It is no longer just one
\nperson as the center of power.<\/p>\n
About Megawati's inner circle, in any political system,
\nespecially in this country, it exists. Many say this is Javanese,
\nbut this is more due to the presidential system. You have two
\ndifferent systems: an official Cabinet structure and a "kitchen
\nCabinet" -- people who have direct access to the President,
\nanytime and at any place.<\/p>\n
And they naturally give advice and suggestions according to
\nthe formal structure. This happened under president Soeharto,
\nwhere decisions were made at Bina Graha or at his private
\nresidence on Jl. Cendana. During Abdurrahman Wahid's presidency,
\nthere were also people with direct access to him. It was
\ninteresting to see kyai walking in sandals at the palace ...<\/p>\n
In contrast with Abdurrahman, the number of people having
\ndirect and very good access to President Megawati is very
\nlimited. And the President has a very strong adviser, namely
\nBambang Kesowo, who reminds me of Pak Sudharmono, Soeharto's
\nstate secretary and Bambang's former mentor.<\/p>\n
In a sense the system, the relationship between the formal
\nCabinet structure with the President and the "kitchen Cabinet"
\nreminds me of the old days of president Soeharto. So we should
\nnaturally expect that the decision-making process will be very
\ncomplex. You now have the Cabinet, the DPR, the military and a
\n"kitchen Cabinet". And all these institutions will do their best
\nto advise and influence Ibu Megawati, and so on.<\/p>\n
If she remains silent many will be confused; it is really
\nimportant that the President explains what she thinks are her
\npriorities in her own language, not just through a statement
\nwritten by somebody else ... And naturally, depending on what
\nkind of question she needs to address, you would expect different
\ntypes of people playing a major role.<\/p>\n
Especially in macroeconomic management, all of us hope
\nthat ... those professionals who enjoy international credibility,
\nwill be appointed as economic minister, coordinating minister for
\nthe economy, finance minister, governor of the central bank and
\nto the chair of the National Development Planning Agency.<\/p>\n
The market hopes the President will make the right decisions.
\nIf not, the market will react negatively, and that will be bad
\nfor the economy.<\/p>\n
For security affairs, the relationship with the military will
\nbe the key. And I tend to believe the President has already
\ndeveloped a good relationship with the conservative wing of the
\nArmy, represented by Army Chief Gen. Endriartono Sutarto.<\/p>\n
I may be wrong, but I believe that he will lead TNI. The
\nmilitary could well be under the control of conservative
\ngenerals. The kind of reformist agenda that was very important
\nunder B.J. Habibie's and Abdurrahman's administrations will be
\nlost.<\/p>\n
The relationship between the military and Megawati will be
\nstable, while at the same time the military will remain more-or-
\nless as it is. And it is up to you to decide whether that is a
\ngood thing or not.
\nBut Megawati and also her supporters once suffered from military
\noppression.<\/p>\n
Certainly she suffered under Soeharto, but from her
\nperspective (the perpetrators) are individuals, rogue elements,
\nnot the military institution per se that made her and the people
\nsuffer ... Her silence on the commemoration of the July 27
\ntragedy (the violent takeover of her party headquarters in
\nJakarta in July 1996), which occurred just a few days after she
\nbecame president, shows that (such issues) are not the kind of
\nquestions she wants to address.
\nPeople still have a very negative perception on the military.<\/p>\n
We can see that now the military has emerged at the center of
\npower. It played a decisive role in the defeat of Abdurrahman
\nWahid.<\/p>\n
It is also important to see that soldiers on the ground are
\nnot really doing what they are told to do. Sometimes the soldiers
\nturn out to be like "machines", or (become) a "mafia" because
\nthey cannot survive. Just ask low-ranking soldiers, not the high-
\nand middle-ranking officers, about their life.<\/p>\n
Their life is very tough. Their monthly payment may be only
\nenough for one week. They need to supplement their income. In the
\npast their commanders took care of them, because there were many
\nfoundations that ran businesses or joint ventures, and that was a
\nsource of funds for the commanders to take care of their
\nsoldiers.<\/p>\n
Many of the foundation's businesses became bankrupt during the
\neconomic crisis. So the commanders could not really take care of
\ntheir soldiers ... (who became) involved in drug trafficking, or
\neven became becak (pedicab) drivers.
\nWhat's your view of the election of Hamzah Haz, chairman of an
\nIslamic party, the United Development Party (PPP) as Vice
\nPresident?<\/p>\n
It is clear that Indonesia is more Islamic now compared with
\n50 years ago, even compared with 30 years ago. And ... the
\ncontrasting inclination (is that) one group of people, slightly
\nmore than 60 percent, tend to be "more secular." Not just
\nMuslims, as Christians can also be secular.<\/p>\n
There are people who worry about Islam, but there is also a
\nquite sizable number of people who want to see the country based
\non Islamic values. It is quite natural to see this combination.
\n(Because) the House is now very important as a power center, to
\nmake sure that Ibu Megawati secures a majority in the House it is
\nquite natural for Megawati and her Indonesian Democratic Party of
\nStruggle (PDI Perjuangan) to seek support from the (Muslim-
\noriented) axis force.<\/p>\n
... Even in the recent past Pak Amien Rais (the People's
\nConsultative Assembly Speaker) supported Abdurrahman and then
\nbecame his fiercest opponent. I am not surprised that currently
\nthe President enjoys the support of Amien, and her return to
\npower is also thanks to Amien. (Hamzah's becoming vice president)
\nwill be insurance (for the support of PPP for Megawati's
\npresidency); Amien's coalition is weaker now as (a member of the)
\nlargest faction in the group (the axis force) has now become the
\nvice president.<\/p>\n
I am not saying this will really happen, but I am looking with
\ninterest that, given the fact that Megawati tends to be rather
\nquiet, it ... (may be) really difficult not only for foreigners
\nbut also for the Jakarta elite to have access to the President.<\/p>\n
I wonder whether these people will seek access to Vice
\nPresident Hamzah Haz who is more accessible, and therefore I
\nwonder if it may turn out that the Vice President outshines the
\nPresident for the simple reason that the President is very quiet
\nand that it is may be more difficult to have access to her.
\n In the last three years Indonesia has become a liability in the
\nregion.<\/p>\n
Let me talk about the relationship between Japan and
\nIndonesia. There is no question that it will be a big plus if
\nIndonesia returns to a healthy state and achieves stability under
\nthis democratic presidential system. I do not think that we want
\nto see the country returned to authoritarian rule again.<\/p>\n
Again there are a lot of, not really worries, but rather
\nconfusion, simply because Megawati remains silent.<\/p>\n
I understand the President is scheduled to visit the United
\nStates, Beijing and Tokyo in September. I think this is a very
\nimportant opportunity; if she goes to Tokyo, she will see Prime
\nMinister Junichiro Koizumi, who has just won the upper house
\nelections. The Japanese private sector is really important for
\nthe Indonesian economy.<\/p>\n
I expect the President to see the business leaders at
\nKaidanren (Chamber of Commerce) when she visits Tokyo. It should
\nbe a very good chance for her to explain her plans, her
\npriorities. Otherwise if she remains quiet, and just smiles and
\nshake hands, it will be very disappointing.<\/p>\n
I am just underlining that if Indonesia restores stability,
\nregains its legitimacy, it could again be at the center of ASEAN
\n(Association of Southeast Asian Nations). Its population is half
\nof ASEAN and its territory is very large.<\/p>\n
Actually, the domestic agenda is the most important. My sense
\nis that the government needs to spell out its priorities. We also
\nknow there are broad questions, but everybody will be watching
\nthe economic team. We are deeply concerned about how it will
\nmanage the budget and the exchange rate.<\/p>\n
The very basic requirement is price stability. If you succeed
\nin keeping down inflation, keeping the budget totals at
\nrelatively the same (rupiah value) level, then foreign investors,
\nand also domestic investors, can expect a return on their
\ninvestment.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/megawatis-silence-could-cost-her-greatly-1447893297",
"image": ""
},
"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
"sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com"
}