Median Social Media Survey: Purbaya Emerges as Vice-Presidential 'Dark Horse'
The Median Survey Institute has released findings on respondent perceptions across social media regarding presidential and vice-presidential electability. According to the results, the presidential candidate most frequently chosen by social media respondents was Prabowo Subianto, whilst Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa emerged in the vice-presidential electability rankings.
The survey was conducted between 10 and 14 February 2026, with a total of 1,200 respondents spread across all provinces. The methodology employed a Google Form-based questionnaire distributed to respondents on social media platforms, targeting active social media users aged 17 to over 60.
Researchers subsequently called back respondents who completed the Google Form to verify the accuracy of their responses. Demographically, the proportion of male and female respondents was 50.6% and 49.4% respectively. The largest share of respondents was located on Java, comprising 40.2%.
“We formulated questions within a Google Form, then distributed and blasted them to provinces across the country. After receiving responses, we contacted those who provided answers to verify accuracy,” said Median Survey Institute Research Director Ade Irfan Abdurahman whilst presenting the research methodology on Monday (23/2/2026).
The survey included findings on presidential and vice-presidential electability. Respondents were asked: “If a presidential election were held today, which figure would you choose to become President of the Republic of Indonesia?”
First place went to Prabowo Subianto, the current President for the 2024-2029 term. Second place was held by Anies Baswedan, followed by Dedi Mulyadi. The top ten presidential electability rankings are as follows:
- Prabowo Subianto: 29%
- Anies Baswedan: 20.6%
- Dedi Mulyadi: 17.0%
- Ganjar Pranowo: 5.2%
- Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono: 4.2%
- Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa: 4%
- Gibran Rakabuming Raka: 2.6%
- Mahfud Md: 1.2%
- Pramono Anung: 1.0%
- Ahok: 1.0%
Median Survey Institute Executive Research Director Rico Marbun said Prabowo currently remains in the lead amid the issue of Indonesia joining the Board of Peace established by United States President Donald Trump. Prabowo’s electability is the highest in the presidential candidate category, whilst Gibran Rakabuming Raka also holds the highest electability in the vice-presidential findings.
“Amid these international issues, Prabowo Subianto continues to lead in presidential electability (29%), followed by Anies Baswedan (20.6%) and Dedi Mulyadi (17%),” Rico said.
Looking at presidential electability trends, Prabowo experienced an increase from January 2026. That month, Prabowo’s electability stood at 27.8%, followed by Anies Baswedan at 19.9% and Dedi Mulyadi at 17.4%. All three saw their electability rise in February 2026, with Prabowo recording a notably significant increase from 27.8% to 29.0%.
Meanwhile, in the vice-presidential electability findings, Gibran Rakabuming Raka occupied first place. Purbaya held second position, with his electability as a vice-presidential candidate also proving notably high.
“Gibran Rakabuming Raka is the figure with the highest vice-presidential electability (17.9%),” Rico said.
Respondents were asked a similar question: “If a vice-presidential election were held today, which figure would you choose to become Vice President of the Republic of Indonesia?” The results placed Gibran first, followed by Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa at 10.2% and Dedi Mulyadi at 8.4%.
In the vice-presidential electability survey, a new name emerged: North Maluku Governor Sherly Tjoanda.
The top ten vice-presidential electability rankings according to Median respondents are as follows:
- Gibran Rakabuming Raka: 17.9%
- Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa: 10.2%
- Dedi Mulyadi: 8.4%
- Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono: 8.0%
- Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok): 6.8%
- Mahfud Md: 5.8%
- Anies Baswedan: 5.2%
- Sherly Tjoanda Laos: 2.4%
- Ganjar Pranowo: 2.2%
- Sandiaga Uno: 1.4%