Lesson from RI may be hard for Myanmar

Lesson from RI may be hard for Myanmar

By Don Pathan

BANGKOK (AP): The abrupt downfall of President Soeharto in Indonesia came as a surprise for much of the world, but for the military regime in Myanmar, it was also a rude awakening.

For the past eight years, the generals in the Myanmar capital of Yangon have been struggling to find a constitutional formula that would guarantee their continued hold on power while providing a semblance of democracy.

Indonesia was their model. The political system erected by Soeharto seemed eternally stable and gave the Indonesian armed forces a "dual function" in the political and military spheres. The junta that came to power in Myanmar, also known as Burma, after suppressing riots against military rule in 1988 has sought to formalize and legitimize a similar system since being surprised by the election victory of Aung San Suu Kyi's party in 1990.

The victory should have enabled Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy to take control of Parliament. The military, faced with the loss of power, instead refused to recognize the result.

Soeharto's system seemed to provide a way for the military to keep crucial power, while satisfying critics at home and overseas who were demanding some kind of move toward civilian rule.

But Suu Kyi, winner of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize, walked out of a convention aimed at producing an Indonesian-style constitution in 1995, deeming the process a predetermined sham. The country has been in political deadlock since.

Now, the appeal of the Indonesian model may be less. Certainly, the economic development and political stability that Myanmar's rulers so admired has been diminished by Indonesia's financial collapse and Soeharto's anarchic last days.

These days, there is a new Indonesian model in the making, one ordinary Myanmar citizens didn't see in the official media but about which they could have heard on foreign radio -- how student-led protesters sparked the fall of Asia's longest-serving dictator and how a long-rigid military appears to be supporting democratic changes.

But Myanmar is unlikely to follow the same path. The universities have been closed since protests in 1996 and should stay that way for some time.

The military would be uneasy about testing whether the Indonesian lesson has reached Myanmar students, and few students can think the army's response to widespread unrest would be much different from the 1988 bloodletting.

In a sign of possible nervousness, though, teachers have been warned to look out for subversives -- meaning Suu Kyi supporters -- as the high schools prepared to reopen from spring break.

Myanmar's generals hoped that gaining membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations last year would result in new investments alleviating economic hardship and bolster their legitimacy. The Asian crisis dried up investments.

Soeharto's family coincidentally had extensive holdings in Myanmar. His government, pilloried for its own human-rights abuses, gave Myanmar a shield within ASEAN from mild reproaches from more democratic members like Thailand and the Philippines. Indonesia's new government, keen to prove its reformist credentials, may be less accommodating.

But how the new leaders in Jakarta handles the post-Soeharto era could have a deep impact on thinking in Yangon -- depending on whether they seek retribution or let bygones be bygones.

An approach that favors reconciliation could become a new Indonesian model and ease anxieties among Myanmar's generals that life could go on if they, too, one day cede some power.