Lesson from RI may be hard for Myanmar

Lesson from RI may be hard for Myanmar

By Don Pathan

BANGKOK (AP): The abrupt downfall of President Soeharto in
Indonesia came as a surprise for much of the world, but for the
military regime in Myanmar, it was also a rude awakening.

For the past eight years, the generals in the Myanmar capital
of Yangon have been struggling to find a constitutional formula
that would guarantee their continued hold on power while
providing a semblance of democracy.

Indonesia was their model. The political system erected by
Soeharto seemed eternally stable and gave the Indonesian armed
forces a "dual function" in the political and military spheres.
The junta that came to power in Myanmar, also known as Burma,
after suppressing riots against military rule in 1988 has sought
to formalize and legitimize a similar system since being
surprised by the election victory of Aung San Suu Kyi's party in
1990.

The victory should have enabled Suu Kyi's National League for
Democracy to take control of Parliament. The military, faced with
the loss of power, instead refused to recognize the result.

Soeharto's system seemed to provide a way for the military to
keep crucial power, while satisfying critics at home and overseas
who were demanding some kind of move toward civilian rule.

But Suu Kyi, winner of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize, walked out
of a convention aimed at producing an Indonesian-style
constitution in 1995, deeming the process a predetermined sham.
The country has been in political deadlock since.

Now, the appeal of the Indonesian model may be less.
Certainly, the economic development and political stability that
Myanmar's rulers so admired has been diminished by Indonesia's
financial collapse and Soeharto's anarchic last days.

These days, there is a new Indonesian model in the making, one
ordinary Myanmar citizens didn't see in the official media but
about which they could have heard on foreign radio -- how
student-led protesters sparked the fall of Asia's longest-serving
dictator and how a long-rigid military appears to be supporting
democratic changes.

But Myanmar is unlikely to follow the same path. The
universities have been closed since protests in 1996 and should
stay that way for some time.

The military would be uneasy about testing whether the
Indonesian lesson has reached Myanmar students, and few students
can think the army's response to widespread unrest would be much
different from the 1988 bloodletting.

In a sign of possible nervousness, though, teachers have been
warned to look out for subversives -- meaning Suu Kyi supporters
-- as the high schools prepared to reopen from spring break.

Myanmar's generals hoped that gaining membership in the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations last year would result in
new investments alleviating economic hardship and bolster their
legitimacy. The Asian crisis dried up investments.

Soeharto's family coincidentally had extensive holdings in
Myanmar. His government, pilloried for its own human-rights
abuses, gave Myanmar a shield within ASEAN from mild reproaches
from more democratic members like Thailand and the Philippines.
Indonesia's new government, keen to prove its reformist
credentials, may be less accommodating.

But how the new leaders in Jakarta handles the post-Soeharto
era could have a deep impact on thinking in Yangon -- depending
on whether they seek retribution or let bygones be bygones.

An approach that favors reconciliation could become a new
Indonesian model and ease anxieties among Myanmar's generals that
life could go on if they, too, one day cede some power.