Lesson from RI may be hard for Myanmar<\/p>\n
By Don Pathan<\/p>\n
BANGKOK (AP): The abrupt downfall of President Soeharto in
\nIndonesia came as a surprise for much of the world, but for the
\nmilitary regime in Myanmar, it was also a rude awakening.<\/p>\n
For the past eight years, the generals in the Myanmar capital
\nof Yangon have been struggling to find a constitutional formula
\nthat would guarantee their continued hold on power while
\nproviding a semblance of democracy.<\/p>\n
Indonesia was their model. The political system erected by
\nSoeharto seemed eternally stable and gave the Indonesian armed
\nforces a \"dual function\" in the political and military spheres.
\nThe junta that came to power in Myanmar, also known as Burma,
\nafter suppressing riots against military rule in 1988 has sought
\nto formalize and legitimize a similar system since being
\nsurprised by the election victory of Aung San Suu Kyi's party in
\n1990.<\/p>\n
The victory should have enabled Suu Kyi's National League for
\nDemocracy to take control of Parliament. The military, faced with
\nthe loss of power, instead refused to recognize the result.<\/p>\n
Soeharto's system seemed to provide a way for the military to
\nkeep crucial power, while satisfying critics at home and overseas
\nwho were demanding some kind of move toward civilian rule.<\/p>\n
But Suu Kyi, winner of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize, walked out
\nof a convention aimed at producing an Indonesian-style
\nconstitution in 1995, deeming the process a predetermined sham.
\nThe country has been in political deadlock since.<\/p>\n
Now, the appeal of the Indonesian model may be less.
\nCertainly, the economic development and political stability that
\nMyanmar's rulers so admired has been diminished by Indonesia's
\nfinancial collapse and Soeharto's anarchic last days.<\/p>\n
These days, there is a new Indonesian model in the making, one
\nordinary Myanmar citizens didn't see in the official media but
\nabout which they could have heard on foreign radio -- how
\nstudent-led protesters sparked the fall of Asia's longest-serving
\ndictator and how a long-rigid military appears to be supporting
\ndemocratic changes.<\/p>\n
But Myanmar is unlikely to follow the same path. The
\nuniversities have been closed since protests in 1996 and should
\nstay that way for some time.<\/p>\n
The military would be uneasy about testing whether the
\nIndonesian lesson has reached Myanmar students, and few students
\ncan think the army's response to widespread unrest would be much
\ndifferent from the 1988 bloodletting.<\/p>\n
In a sign of possible nervousness, though, teachers have been
\nwarned to look out for subversives -- meaning Suu Kyi supporters
\n-- as the high schools prepared to reopen from spring break.<\/p>\n
Myanmar's generals hoped that gaining membership in the
\nAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations last year would result in
\nnew investments alleviating economic hardship and bolster their
\nlegitimacy. The Asian crisis dried up investments.<\/p>\n
Soeharto's family coincidentally had extensive holdings in
\nMyanmar. His government, pilloried for its own human-rights
\nabuses, gave Myanmar a shield within ASEAN from mild reproaches
\nfrom more democratic members like Thailand and the Philippines.
\nIndonesia's new government, keen to prove its reformist
\ncredentials, may be less accommodating.<\/p>\n
But how the new leaders in Jakarta handles the post-Soeharto
\nera could have a deep impact on thinking in Yangon -- depending
\non whether they seek retribution or let bygones be bygones.<\/p>\n
An approach that favors reconciliation could become a new
\nIndonesian model and ease anxieties among Myanmar's generals that
\nlife could go on if they, too, one day cede some power.<\/p>",
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