Iran War Exposes Trump's Weak Spot, America in Ruins
The seven-week conflict between the United States (US) and Iran has not only impacted global geopolitics but also exposed a major weakness of US President Donald Trump. What is it? It is domestic economic pressure.
US military strikes alongside Israel since late February have failed to topple the Iranian regime or force Tehran to meet all of Washington’s demands. However, this crisis has instead revealed that economic impacts are the most limiting factor on Trump’s actions.
Amid rising petrol prices, increasing inflation, and declining public approval ratings, Trump is now pushed to quickly seek diplomatic solutions to mitigate the war’s domestic fallout.
Iran is indeed under military pressure but is assessed to have successfully retaliated with significant economic blows. The closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz route temporarily triggered the worst global energy shock, driving a surge in world oil prices.
The rise in energy costs has been directly felt by US consumers, even though the country is not entirely dependent on that route. The International Monetary Fund has even warned of global recession risks due to this turmoil.
Political pressure is also mounting ahead of the November midterm elections, where the Republican Party is striving to maintain its slim majority in Congress. This situation makes the need to end the conflict increasingly urgent.
Analysts assess that Iran is leveraging its position to push the US back to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, US rivals like China and Russia are likely observing that Trump remains militarily aggressive but quickly seeks diplomatic paths when economic pressures mount.
“Trump is feeling economic pressure, which is his weak spot in this war of choice,” said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration who leads the strategic consultancy Global Situation Room, quoted from Reuters on Saturday (18/4/2026).
White House spokesperson Kush Desai said that while seeking an agreement with Iran to resolve energy market issues in the interim, the government has never lost focus on implementing the president’s agenda of affordability and growth. “President Trump can do two things at once,” he stated.
On 8 April, Trump began shifting his approach from airstrikes to diplomatic channels, following pressure from financial markets and parts of his support base. Economic impacts are also felt in domestic sectors such as farmers due to disrupted fertiliser supplies and rising airfare prices from expensive fuel.
Nevertheless, the conflict’s future remains uncertain. With the two-week ceasefire still in effect, Trump faces the choice of whether to reach an agreement, extend the ceasefire, or resume strikes.
Global oil prices temporarily fell and financial markets strengthened after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under the framework of a 10-day ceasefire mediated by the US. Trump has claimed that a deal with Iran is nearly reached, though sources from Tehran state that differences remain unresolved.
Experts warn that even if the war ends soon, its economic impacts could last for months to years. One major issue is whether any future agreement will truly halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which Tehran has long denied.
On the other hand, US allies in Europe and Asia are beginning to question the consistency of Washington’s policies. Trump’s decision to start the war without broad consultation has raised concerns about geopolitical stability and global economic security.
“The alarm bells ringing for allies right now are how the war has highlighted that the administration can act unpredictably, without much consideration of the consequences,” said Gregory Poling, an Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Trump is not the first to be cautious about the economic impacts of foreign policy. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, then-US President Joe Biden chose not to hastily impose energy sanctions on Moscow due to fears of disrupting global oil supplies and driving up US petrol prices.
In contrast, Donald Trump, who is running again with promises of cheap energy prices and low inflation, is seen as highly sensitive to price hike issues. One example is his reduction of tariffs on China after facing retaliatory strikes in the trade war.
Miscalculating the Impact
Several analysts assess that Trump misread his opponent’s response. Similar to the trade war with China, he is again seen as failing to anticipate Iran’s moves in this armed conflict.
Rather than responding only militarily, Iran has attacked on the economic front, including disrupting energy infrastructure in the Gulf region and pressuring global oil shipping routes.
Initially, Trump is said to have assumed this conflict would be short-lived, like previous military operations in Venezuela or limited strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the impacts this time are far broader and more prolonged.
This situation has also sparked concerns among US allies in Asia such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. They view Trump’s policies as tending to be unpredictable and insufficiently considering geopolitical and economic impacts on partners.
In Europe, allied countries are also growing restless as they bear the economic fallout from a conflict they did not start. Concerns are rising about US commitment to long-term support for Ukraine.
Gulf Arab states themselves are pushing for the war to end soon but still want security guarantees if an agreement is reached.
Meanwhile, Trump’s domestic political support remains relatively strong among his base. However, doubts are emerging about whether he can restore voter support.