The seven-week conflict between the United States (US) and Iran has\nnot only impacted global geopolitics but also exposed a major weakness\nof US President Donald Trump. What is it? It is domestic economic\npressure.<\/p>\n
US military strikes alongside Israel since late February have failed\nto topple the Iranian regime or force Tehran to meet all of Washington\u2019s\ndemands. However, this crisis has instead revealed that economic impacts\nare the most limiting factor on Trump\u2019s actions.<\/p>\n
Amid rising petrol prices, increasing inflation, and declining public\napproval ratings, Trump is now pushed to quickly seek diplomatic\nsolutions to mitigate the war\u2019s domestic fallout.<\/p>\n
Iran is indeed under military pressure but is assessed to have\nsuccessfully retaliated with significant economic blows. The closure of\nthe strategic Strait of Hormuz route temporarily triggered the worst\nglobal energy shock, driving a surge in world oil prices.<\/p>\n
The rise in energy costs has been directly felt by US consumers, even\nthough the country is not entirely dependent on that route. The\nInternational Monetary Fund has even warned of global recession risks\ndue to this turmoil.<\/p>\n
Political pressure is also mounting ahead of the November midterm\nelections, where the Republican Party is striving to maintain its slim\nmajority in Congress. This situation makes the need to end the conflict\nincreasingly urgent.<\/p>\n
Analysts assess that Iran is leveraging its position to push the US\nback to the negotiating table. Meanwhile, US rivals like China and\nRussia are likely observing that Trump remains militarily aggressive but\nquickly seeks diplomatic paths when economic pressures mount.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump is feeling economic pressure, which is his weak spot in this\nwar of choice,\u201d said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the\nObama administration who leads the strategic consultancy Global\nSituation Room, quoted from Reuters on Saturday (18\/4\/2026).<\/p>\n
White House spokesperson Kush Desai said that while seeking an\nagreement with Iran to resolve energy market issues in the interim, the\ngovernment has never lost focus on implementing the president\u2019s agenda\nof affordability and growth. \u201cPresident Trump can do two things at\nonce,\u201d he stated.<\/p>\n
On 8 April, Trump began shifting his approach from airstrikes to\ndiplomatic channels, following pressure from financial markets and parts\nof his support base. Economic impacts are also felt in domestic sectors\nsuch as farmers due to disrupted fertiliser supplies and rising airfare\nprices from expensive fuel.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, the conflict\u2019s future remains uncertain. With the\ntwo-week ceasefire still in effect, Trump faces the choice of whether to\nreach an agreement, extend the ceasefire, or resume strikes.<\/p>\n
Global oil prices temporarily fell and financial markets strengthened\nafter Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under the\nframework of a 10-day ceasefire mediated by the US. Trump has claimed\nthat a deal with Iran is nearly reached, though sources from Tehran\nstate that differences remain unresolved.<\/p>\n
Experts warn that even if the war ends soon, its economic impacts\ncould last for months to years. One major issue is whether any future\nagreement will truly halt Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions, which Tehran has\nlong denied.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, US allies in Europe and Asia are beginning to\nquestion the consistency of Washington\u2019s policies. Trump\u2019s decision to\nstart the war without broad consultation has raised concerns about\ngeopolitical stability and global economic security.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe alarm bells ringing for allies right now are how the war has\nhighlighted that the administration can act unpredictably, without much\nconsideration of the consequences,\u201d said Gregory Poling, an Asia expert\nat the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.<\/p>\n
Trump is not the first to be cautious about the economic impacts of\nforeign policy. After Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, then-US\nPresident Joe Biden chose not to hastily impose energy sanctions on\nMoscow due to fears of disrupting global oil supplies and driving up US\npetrol prices.<\/p>\n
In contrast, Donald Trump, who is running again with promises of\ncheap energy prices and low inflation, is seen as highly sensitive to\nprice hike issues. One example is his reduction of tariffs on China\nafter facing retaliatory strikes in the trade war.<\/p>\n
Miscalculating the Impact<\/p>\n
Several analysts assess that Trump misread his opponent\u2019s response.\nSimilar to the trade war with China, he is again seen as failing to\nanticipate Iran\u2019s moves in this armed conflict.<\/p>\n
Rather than responding only militarily, Iran has attacked on the\neconomic front, including disrupting energy infrastructure in the Gulf\nregion and pressuring global oil shipping routes.<\/p>\n
Initially, Trump is said to have assumed this conflict would be\nshort-lived, like previous military operations in Venezuela or limited\nstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the impacts this time\nare far broader and more prolonged.<\/p>\n
This situation has also sparked concerns among US allies in Asia such\nas Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. They view Trump\u2019s policies as tending\nto be unpredictable and insufficiently considering geopolitical and\neconomic impacts on partners.<\/p>\n
In Europe, allied countries are also growing restless as they bear\nthe economic fallout from a conflict they did not start. Concerns are\nrising about US commitment to long-term support for Ukraine.<\/p>\n
Gulf Arab states themselves are pushing for the war to end soon but\nstill want security guarantees if an agreement is reached.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Trump\u2019s domestic political support remains relatively\nstrong among his base. However, doubts are emerging about whether he can\nrestore voter support.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/iran-war-exposes-trumps-weak-spot-america-in-ruins-1776527442", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }