IHSG Projection This Week Amid Middle East Conflict

Equity analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT) Imam Gunadi projects the Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) will trade within the support level of 8,031 and resistance of 8,437 this week. He states that IHSG movement is influenced by rising global geopolitical risks and domestic fiscal sentiment.

Imam noted that the escalation of the Iran–Israel conflict and tensions in the South Asia region are increasing global risk premiums, particularly with developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy distribution route.

“This uncertainty has the potential to drive US dollar strengthening and rising energy commodity prices, which typically trigger fund rotation towards safe-haven assets and suppress capital flows to emerging markets, including Indonesia,” he said in a written statement on Monday, 2 March 2026.

Nevertheless, Imam assessed that increases in crude oil and coal prices could actually support movement in energy and mining sector shares. He explained that Indonesia, as an exporter of coal and various energy commodities, stands to potentially benefit from increased average selling prices and potential margin improvements for related sector issuers.

On the other hand, should conflict escalation cause excessively sharp and prolonged energy price spikes, risks of global inflation and rupiah depreciation pressures could increase. “Significant crude oil price increases have the potential to worsen pressure on the current account balance through rising energy import values, whilst also heightening rupiah volatility,” said Imam.

Therefore, according to Imam, the IHSG’s short-term direction is highly dependent on whether energy price increases remain controlled and supportive for commodity issuers, or instead transform into an inflation shock that undermines macroeconomic stability.