Does Megawati still have a chance to win?

Does Megawati still have a chance to win?

By Yulius P. Hermawan

BANDUNG (JP): It is surprising to see political parties
backroom deals in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR)
General Session. The victory of Amien Rais in the election of
MPR's head and the general acceptance of Akbar Tandjung for head
of the House of Representative (DPR) creates much speculation
about Megawati Soekarnoputri's chance for the top office. Will
the MPR elect the winner of the general election to head the
country? Will parties collaborate for the victory of the daughter
of the first president of this country?

For many, it is not surprising to see how Amien won the
election as head of the MPR. The proactive approach proves useful
to lead the leader of the National Mandate Party (PAN) to head
the most honorable assembly in the new democracy. Collaboration
between eight Islam-based parties is an effective means to help
PAN evolve its role. Even though PAN won only 34 representative
seats in the June 7 elections, it successfully collected 271
other supports. The success was possible after Golkar obviously
supported the candidacy of Amien. This was the starting point for
the axis force to show its real influence in the legislature.

However, it is surprising to see how Akbar gained a majority
of votes in the election of head of the DPR. The leader of Golkar
successfully collected support from the ruling party and the
opposition parties, including parties that joined in the axis
force, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan). Many claim that
the support of the axis force is part of the concession which the
force gave as reward for Golkar's support of Amien.

Many people speculate that PDI Perjuangan's support for Akbar
is part of its new approach to the real political constellation.
This pattern of cooperation among all parties raises a question
about the rewards which PDI Perjuangan will take from this
strategy.

In many respects, the success of the axis force in bringing
about the victory in the election of the MPR's head eliminates a
wide-spread skepticism about the solidity of third forces. So
far, many people see that the pattern of alignment had no full
support by all members of parties. It was the party's leader who
was actively involved in the establishment of such collaboration.
The role of party's members was seen less significant than that
of party's leaders.

Yet everyone nowadays can see that the collaboration has
gained a momentum to be considered as a real force in the real
political game. Whoever wants to win the most desired posts in
office has to embrace the axis force. It seems to be reasonable
to say that without such a strategic partnership with the forces,
other grand parties may not be able to achieve their goals.

This is certainly a great challenge for PDI Perjuangan in
achieving its targets to gain an ultimate victory in the
presidential election set to be held on Oct. 20. The partnership
with PKB is strategic but insufficient to collect considerable
support. The winner of the general election has to embrace other
parties to gain such necessary support.

The challenge is now even bigger than ever as the axis force
continuously calls for PKB to break its partnership with PDI
Perjuangan. As politics is changeable, the unhappy ending of the
partnership may also occur. After PDI Perjuangan failed to put
PKB's Matori Abdul Djalil at MPR's helm, PDI Perjuangan may find
difficulties to offer some post for PKB's leader. It might be the
moment for PKB to reconsider its partnership with PDI Perjuangan.

Gus Dur's unclear stand is another factor which may bring
about the possible change of PKB's position in supporting
Megawati and PDI Perjuangan. So far, Amien has been attempting to
make every endeavor to keep a good partnership with Gus Dur. On
many occasions Amien tried to show that his victory was possible
as he had got a blessing from the leader of the Nahdlatul Ulama
(NU). It is obvious that the partnership of Amien and Gus Dur is
increasing dramatically if compared to the partnership of
Megawati and Gus Dur.

PDI Perjuangan is facing a difficult situation if PKB changes
its mind to collaborate with other Islam-based parties. Its
dependency on PKB is growing ever bigger. Maintaining the
alliance with PKB may become one important task. PDI Perjuangan
also needs to make a break-through if it still holds an ambition
to support Megawati to occupy the chair of presidency. This is a
necessary task of PDI Perjuangan to fulfill the dream of its
supporters. The transparent democratic procedures of the ongoing
General Session are likely giving legitimacy to every decision
generated by the MPR. Even though, in many respects, it seems to
be rather controversial, the people will learn how to accept any
result of the session, even if the leader of PDI Perjuangan is
not elected as the fourth president of the country. It will be a
hard time for PDI Perjuangan to reassure its supporters about its
failure to realize their wish.

However, the failure of PDI Perjuangan to lead PKB's candidate
for the most important post in the MPR is a good lesson for PDI
Perjuangan. This convinced the winning party that the real
political game has started. This game provides the same chance
for all parties to achieve their political career. Amien's
victory at least shows that the party does not need to win the
polls in order to get the most strategic post in the legislature,
if the party has a capability to collaborate with others.

It is PDI Perjuangan which can answer the question about its
chance to reach the top office. PDI Perjuangan leaders should
learn the real political constellation in the legislature to
examine to what extent it has a chance in leading PDI
Perjuangan's leader to the State Palace. The party may still have
a chance to achieve its target if it is able to promote a mutual
partnership with other parties, including the axis force and
Golkar.

As the election winner, the party has a crucial asset for
forming the government. However, being satisfied with victory in
the elections will prove nothing to support the decision of the
party's congress on the candidacy of Megawati for president. A
concrete collaboration with other parties is imperative to make
such an absolute decision possible. This is the cost that PDI
Perjuangan needs to pay for having an access to power. As the
game is dominated by such a Machiavellian approach, the party has
no option other than to adopt the approach.

There is strong argument that the axis force may support PDI
Perjuangan under certain conditions. The cooperation between the
axis force and Golkar will not generate an agreement on the
candidacy of Habibie for president. Amien and other leaders of
the axis force have openly asked Habibie to reconsider his
candidacy. In many respects, Amien and other opposition leaders
want to present their rejection against the candidacy of Habibie.

Golkar understands this rejection. The party may have to
evaluate the candidacy if it wants to continue its partnership
with the axis force. Such evaluation is imperative as there is a
strong signal that the MPR will not accept Habibie's speech in
front of the new MPR with regards to Habibie's responsibility for
holding the MPR's mandatory. There are many reasons that the
party should not eagerly promote the figure who lacks credibility
and legitimacy.

Golkar may take another scenario with regard to the candidacy
of Habibie for president. Golkar will not change its decision on
the candidacy of Habibie. However, the party will let the MPR
generate a decision on the election of its candidate. Golkar
itself will not make every endeavor to have its candidate win the
presidential election. If the MPR rejects Habibie's speech,
Golkar will have no option but to let other parties promote their
candidates. This is to say that Golkar wants to show its new
paradigm.

If this happens, Megawati has a better chance than Habibie.
There is some indication of the axis force rejection of the
candidacy of Megawati. Yet it does not means that such an
attitude on the candidacy of a woman as leader is not fixed.
There was flexible engagement shown by the axis force when the
election of MPR's head was held. They did not make every endeavor
to push the candidacy of Gus Dur. The force changed its goals in
promoting the leader of the biggest Muslim organization to be the
head of the MPR after the faction of provincial representatives
did not promote the head of NU as the candidate.

The axis force may initiate similar change on the candidacy of
Gus Dur for president. In many respects, it will depend on
whether PKB will support the candidacy of its own figure. If PKB
continues its partnership with PDI Perjuangan, the axis force
will most probably find another figure. This opens a chance for
all other candidates, including Megawati.

The possible change on the candidacy of Gus Dur will also
depend on the extent to which PDI Perjuangan may keep its
partnership with PKB as well as on PDI Perjuangan's initiative to
influence the axis force. It will certainly depend on what kind
of concession the winner of the general election offers for
building the cooperation. This is to say that there is still a
golden opportunity for Megawati to hold the top office if PDI
Perjuangan can adopt a new approach in the remaining days.
Otherwise, 34 percent of voters in the last general election will
be disappointed with the way the party responds their support.

It should be acknowledged that the axis force does really
exist in our new democracy. For many, it may be difficult to
understand why there should be a third partite in politics. Yet
it is a fact that all partisans and observers need to understand
the landscape of Indonesian politics. Such acknowledgement is a
good starting point for all partisans to generate true democracy.

There is reason to be optimistic for having the widely
accepted results of the MPR's session. If all forces can perform
as rational, democratic agents, they will produce decisions which
can be accepted by all people. This is the most important thing
in the last part of the game. If so, we will be witnessing that
the most difficult part of the political game is generating a
political certainty. The people will enjoy the concrete result to
the ongoing political change afterward.

The writer is a lecturer on international relations,
Parahyangan Catholic University in Bandung.

Window: ...being satisfied with victory in the elections proves
nothing to support the decision of the party's congress on the
candidacy of Megawati for president.

...there is still a golden opportunity for Megawati to hold
the top office if PDI Perjuangan can adopt a new approach in the
remaining days.