Does Megawati still have a chance to win?

By Yulius P. Hermawan

BANDUNG (JP): It is surprising to see political parties backroom deals in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) General Session. The victory of Amien Rais in the election of MPR's head and the general acceptance of Akbar Tandjung for head of the House of Representative (DPR) creates much speculation about Megawati Soekarnoputri's chance for the top office. Will the MPR elect the winner of the general election to head the country? Will parties collaborate for the victory of the daughter of the first president of this country?

For many, it is not surprising to see how Amien won the election as head of the MPR. The proactive approach proves useful to lead the leader of the National Mandate Party (PAN) to head the most honorable assembly in the new democracy. Collaboration between eight Islam-based parties is an effective means to help PAN evolve its role. Even though PAN won only 34 representative seats in the June 7 elections, it successfully collected 271 other supports. The success was possible after Golkar obviously supported the candidacy of Amien. This was the starting point for the axis force to show its real influence in the legislature.

However, it is surprising to see how Akbar gained a majority of votes in the election of head of the DPR. The leader of Golkar successfully collected support from the ruling party and the opposition parties, including parties that joined in the axis force, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan). Many claim that the support of the axis force is part of the concession which the force gave as reward for Golkar's support of Amien.

Many people speculate that PDI Perjuangan's support for Akbar is part of its new approach to the real political constellation. This pattern of cooperation among all parties raises a question about the rewards which PDI Perjuangan will take from this strategy.

In many respects, the success of the axis force in bringing about the victory in the election of the MPR's head eliminates a wide-spread skepticism about the solidity of third forces. So far, many people see that the pattern of alignment had no full support by all members of parties. It was the party's leader who was actively involved in the establishment of such collaboration. The role of party's members was seen less significant than that of party's leaders.

Yet everyone nowadays can see that the collaboration has gained a momentum to be considered as a real force in the real political game. Whoever wants to win the most desired posts in office has to embrace the axis force. It seems to be reasonable to say that without such a strategic partnership with the forces, other grand parties may not be able to achieve their goals.

This is certainly a great challenge for PDI Perjuangan in achieving its targets to gain an ultimate victory in the presidential election set to be held on Oct. 20. The partnership with PKB is strategic but insufficient to collect considerable support. The winner of the general election has to embrace other parties to gain such necessary support.

The challenge is now even bigger than ever as the axis force continuously calls for PKB to break its partnership with PDI Perjuangan. As politics is changeable, the unhappy ending of the partnership may also occur. After PDI Perjuangan failed to put PKB's Matori Abdul Djalil at MPR's helm, PDI Perjuangan may find difficulties to offer some post for PKB's leader. It might be the moment for PKB to reconsider its partnership with PDI Perjuangan.

Gus Dur's unclear stand is another factor which may bring about the possible change of PKB's position in supporting Megawati and PDI Perjuangan. So far, Amien has been attempting to make every endeavor to keep a good partnership with Gus Dur. On many occasions Amien tried to show that his victory was possible as he had got a blessing from the leader of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). It is obvious that the partnership of Amien and Gus Dur is increasing dramatically if compared to the partnership of Megawati and Gus Dur.

PDI Perjuangan is facing a difficult situation if PKB changes its mind to collaborate with other Islam-based parties. Its dependency on PKB is growing ever bigger. Maintaining the alliance with PKB may become one important task. PDI Perjuangan also needs to make a break-through if it still holds an ambition to support Megawati to occupy the chair of presidency. This is a necessary task of PDI Perjuangan to fulfill the dream of its supporters. The transparent democratic procedures of the ongoing General Session are likely giving legitimacy to every decision generated by the MPR. Even though, in many respects, it seems to be rather controversial, the people will learn how to accept any result of the session, even if the leader of PDI Perjuangan is not elected as the fourth president of the country. It will be a hard time for PDI Perjuangan to reassure its supporters about its failure to realize their wish.

However, the failure of PDI Perjuangan to lead PKB's candidate for the most important post in the MPR is a good lesson for PDI Perjuangan. This convinced the winning party that the real political game has started. This game provides the same chance for all parties to achieve their political career. Amien's victory at least shows that the party does not need to win the polls in order to get the most strategic post in the legislature, if the party has a capability to collaborate with others.

It is PDI Perjuangan which can answer the question about its chance to reach the top office. PDI Perjuangan leaders should learn the real political constellation in the legislature to examine to what extent it has a chance in leading PDI Perjuangan's leader to the State Palace. The party may still have a chance to achieve its target if it is able to promote a mutual partnership with other parties, including the axis force and Golkar.

As the election winner, the party has a crucial asset for forming the government. However, being satisfied with victory in the elections will prove nothing to support the decision of the party's congress on the candidacy of Megawati for president. A concrete collaboration with other parties is imperative to make such an absolute decision possible. This is the cost that PDI Perjuangan needs to pay for having an access to power. As the game is dominated by such a Machiavellian approach, the party has no option other than to adopt the approach.

There is strong argument that the axis force may support PDI Perjuangan under certain conditions. The cooperation between the axis force and Golkar will not generate an agreement on the candidacy of Habibie for president. Amien and other leaders of the axis force have openly asked Habibie to reconsider his candidacy. In many respects, Amien and other opposition leaders want to present their rejection against the candidacy of Habibie.

Golkar understands this rejection. The party may have to evaluate the candidacy if it wants to continue its partnership with the axis force. Such evaluation is imperative as there is a strong signal that the MPR will not accept Habibie's speech in front of the new MPR with regards to Habibie's responsibility for holding the MPR's mandatory. There are many reasons that the party should not eagerly promote the figure who lacks credibility and legitimacy.

Golkar may take another scenario with regard to the candidacy of Habibie for president. Golkar will not change its decision on the candidacy of Habibie. However, the party will let the MPR generate a decision on the election of its candidate. Golkar itself will not make every endeavor to have its candidate win the presidential election. If the MPR rejects Habibie's speech, Golkar will have no option but to let other parties promote their candidates. This is to say that Golkar wants to show its new paradigm.

If this happens, Megawati has a better chance than Habibie. There is some indication of the axis force rejection of the candidacy of Megawati. Yet it does not means that such an attitude on the candidacy of a woman as leader is not fixed. There was flexible engagement shown by the axis force when the election of MPR's head was held. They did not make every endeavor to push the candidacy of Gus Dur. The force changed its goals in promoting the leader of the biggest Muslim organization to be the head of the MPR after the faction of provincial representatives did not promote the head of NU as the candidate.

The axis force may initiate similar change on the candidacy of Gus Dur for president. In many respects, it will depend on whether PKB will support the candidacy of its own figure. If PKB continues its partnership with PDI Perjuangan, the axis force will most probably find another figure. This opens a chance for all other candidates, including Megawati.

The possible change on the candidacy of Gus Dur will also depend on the extent to which PDI Perjuangan may keep its partnership with PKB as well as on PDI Perjuangan's initiative to influence the axis force. It will certainly depend on what kind of concession the winner of the general election offers for building the cooperation. This is to say that there is still a golden opportunity for Megawati to hold the top office if PDI Perjuangan can adopt a new approach in the remaining days. Otherwise, 34 percent of voters in the last general election will be disappointed with the way the party responds their support.

It should be acknowledged that the axis force does really exist in our new democracy. For many, it may be difficult to understand why there should be a third partite in politics. Yet it is a fact that all partisans and observers need to understand the landscape of Indonesian politics. Such acknowledgement is a good starting point for all partisans to generate true democracy.

There is reason to be optimistic for having the widely accepted results of the MPR's session. If all forces can perform as rational, democratic agents, they will produce decisions which can be accepted by all people. This is the most important thing in the last part of the game. If so, we will be witnessing that the most difficult part of the political game is generating a political certainty. The people will enjoy the concrete result to the ongoing political change afterward.

The writer is a lecturer on international relations, Parahyangan Catholic University in Bandung.

Window: ...being satisfied with victory in the elections proves nothing to support the decision of the party's congress on the candidacy of Megawati for president.

...there is still a golden opportunity for Megawati to hold the top office if PDI Perjuangan can adopt a new approach in the remaining days.