Does Megawati still have a chance to win?<\/p>\n
By Yulius P. Hermawan<\/p>\n
BANDUNG (JP): It is surprising to see political parties
\nbackroom deals in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR)
\nGeneral Session. The victory of Amien Rais in the election of
\nMPR's head and the general acceptance of Akbar Tandjung for head
\nof the House of Representative (DPR) creates much speculation
\nabout Megawati Soekarnoputri's chance for the top office. Will
\nthe MPR elect the winner of the general election to head the
\ncountry? Will parties collaborate for the victory of the daughter
\nof the first president of this country?<\/p>\n
For many, it is not surprising to see how Amien won the
\nelection as head of the MPR. The proactive approach proves useful
\nto lead the leader of the National Mandate Party (PAN) to head
\nthe most honorable assembly in the new democracy. Collaboration
\nbetween eight Islam-based parties is an effective means to help
\nPAN evolve its role. Even though PAN won only 34 representative
\nseats in the June 7 elections, it successfully collected 271
\nother supports. The success was possible after Golkar obviously
\nsupported the candidacy of Amien. This was the starting point for
\nthe axis force to show its real influence in the legislature.<\/p>\n
However, it is surprising to see how Akbar gained a majority
\nof votes in the election of head of the DPR. The leader of Golkar
\nsuccessfully collected support from the ruling party and the
\nopposition parties, including parties that joined in the axis
\nforce, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Indonesian
\nDemocratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan). Many claim that
\nthe support of the axis force is part of the concession which the
\nforce gave as reward for Golkar's support of Amien.<\/p>\n
Many people speculate that PDI Perjuangan's support for Akbar
\nis part of its new approach to the real political constellation.
\nThis pattern of cooperation among all parties raises a question
\nabout the rewards which PDI Perjuangan will take from this
\nstrategy.<\/p>\n
In many respects, the success of the axis force in bringing
\nabout the victory in the election of the MPR's head eliminates a
\nwide-spread skepticism about the solidity of third forces. So
\nfar, many people see that the pattern of alignment had no full
\nsupport by all members of parties. It was the party's leader who
\nwas actively involved in the establishment of such collaboration.
\nThe role of party's members was seen less significant than that
\nof party's leaders.<\/p>\n
Yet everyone nowadays can see that the collaboration has
\ngained a momentum to be considered as a real force in the real
\npolitical game. Whoever wants to win the most desired posts in
\noffice has to embrace the axis force. It seems to be reasonable
\nto say that without such a strategic partnership with the forces,
\nother grand parties may not be able to achieve their goals.<\/p>\n
This is certainly a great challenge for PDI Perjuangan in
\nachieving its targets to gain an ultimate victory in the
\npresidential election set to be held on Oct. 20. The partnership
\nwith PKB is strategic but insufficient to collect considerable
\nsupport. The winner of the general election has to embrace other
\nparties to gain such necessary support.<\/p>\n
The challenge is now even bigger than ever as the axis force
\ncontinuously calls for PKB to break its partnership with PDI
\nPerjuangan. As politics is changeable, the unhappy ending of the
\npartnership may also occur. After PDI Perjuangan failed to put
\nPKB's Matori Abdul Djalil at MPR's helm, PDI Perjuangan may find
\ndifficulties to offer some post for PKB's leader. It might be the
\nmoment for PKB to reconsider its partnership with PDI Perjuangan.<\/p>\n
Gus Dur's unclear stand is another factor which may bring
\nabout the possible change of PKB's position in supporting
\nMegawati and PDI Perjuangan. So far, Amien has been attempting to
\nmake every endeavor to keep a good partnership with Gus Dur. On
\nmany occasions Amien tried to show that his victory was possible
\nas he had got a blessing from the leader of the Nahdlatul Ulama
\n(NU). It is obvious that the partnership of Amien and Gus Dur is
\nincreasing dramatically if compared to the partnership of
\nMegawati and Gus Dur.<\/p>\n
PDI Perjuangan is facing a difficult situation if PKB changes
\nits mind to collaborate with other Islam-based parties. Its
\ndependency on PKB is growing ever bigger. Maintaining the
\nalliance with PKB may become one important task. PDI Perjuangan
\nalso needs to make a break-through if it still holds an ambition
\nto support Megawati to occupy the chair of presidency. This is a
\nnecessary task of PDI Perjuangan to fulfill the dream of its
\nsupporters. The transparent democratic procedures of the ongoing
\nGeneral Session are likely giving legitimacy to every decision
\ngenerated by the MPR. Even though, in many respects, it seems to
\nbe rather controversial, the people will learn how to accept any
\nresult of the session, even if the leader of PDI Perjuangan is
\nnot elected as the fourth president of the country. It will be a
\nhard time for PDI Perjuangan to reassure its supporters about its
\nfailure to realize their wish.<\/p>\n
However, the failure of PDI Perjuangan to lead PKB's candidate
\nfor the most important post in the MPR is a good lesson for PDI
\nPerjuangan. This convinced the winning party that the real
\npolitical game has started. This game provides the same chance
\nfor all parties to achieve their political career. Amien's
\nvictory at least shows that the party does not need to win the
\npolls in order to get the most strategic post in the legislature,
\nif the party has a capability to collaborate with others.<\/p>\n
It is PDI Perjuangan which can answer the question about its
\nchance to reach the top office. PDI Perjuangan leaders should
\nlearn the real political constellation in the legislature to
\nexamine to what extent it has a chance in leading PDI
\nPerjuangan's leader to the State Palace. The party may still have
\na chance to achieve its target if it is able to promote a mutual
\npartnership with other parties, including the axis force and
\nGolkar.<\/p>\n
As the election winner, the party has a crucial asset for
\nforming the government. However, being satisfied with victory in
\nthe elections will prove nothing to support the decision of the
\nparty's congress on the candidacy of Megawati for president. A
\nconcrete collaboration with other parties is imperative to make
\nsuch an absolute decision possible. This is the cost that PDI
\nPerjuangan needs to pay for having an access to power. As the
\ngame is dominated by such a Machiavellian approach, the party has
\nno option other than to adopt the approach.<\/p>\n
There is strong argument that the axis force may support PDI
\nPerjuangan under certain conditions. The cooperation between the
\naxis force and Golkar will not generate an agreement on the
\ncandidacy of Habibie for president. Amien and other leaders of
\nthe axis force have openly asked Habibie to reconsider his
\ncandidacy. In many respects, Amien and other opposition leaders
\nwant to present their rejection against the candidacy of Habibie.<\/p>\n
Golkar understands this rejection. The party may have to
\nevaluate the candidacy if it wants to continue its partnership
\nwith the axis force. Such evaluation is imperative as there is a
\nstrong signal that the MPR will not accept Habibie's speech in
\nfront of the new MPR with regards to Habibie's responsibility for
\nholding the MPR's mandatory. There are many reasons that the
\nparty should not eagerly promote the figure who lacks credibility
\nand legitimacy.<\/p>\n
Golkar may take another scenario with regard to the candidacy
\nof Habibie for president. Golkar will not change its decision on
\nthe candidacy of Habibie. However, the party will let the MPR
\ngenerate a decision on the election of its candidate. Golkar
\nitself will not make every endeavor to have its candidate win the
\npresidential election. If the MPR rejects Habibie's speech,
\nGolkar will have no option but to let other parties promote their
\ncandidates. This is to say that Golkar wants to show its new
\nparadigm.<\/p>\n
If this happens, Megawati has a better chance than Habibie.
\nThere is some indication of the axis force rejection of the
\ncandidacy of Megawati. Yet it does not means that such an
\nattitude on the candidacy of a woman as leader is not fixed.
\nThere was flexible engagement shown by the axis force when the
\nelection of MPR's head was held. They did not make every endeavor
\nto push the candidacy of Gus Dur. The force changed its goals in
\npromoting the leader of the biggest Muslim organization to be the
\nhead of the MPR after the faction of provincial representatives
\ndid not promote the head of NU as the candidate.<\/p>\n
The axis force may initiate similar change on the candidacy of
\nGus Dur for president. In many respects, it will depend on
\nwhether PKB will support the candidacy of its own figure. If PKB
\ncontinues its partnership with PDI Perjuangan, the axis force
\nwill most probably find another figure. This opens a chance for
\nall other candidates, including Megawati.<\/p>\n
The possible change on the candidacy of Gus Dur will also
\ndepend on the extent to which PDI Perjuangan may keep its
\npartnership with PKB as well as on PDI Perjuangan's initiative to
\ninfluence the axis force. It will certainly depend on what kind
\nof concession the winner of the general election offers for
\nbuilding the cooperation. This is to say that there is still a
\ngolden opportunity for Megawati to hold the top office if PDI
\nPerjuangan can adopt a new approach in the remaining days.
\nOtherwise, 34 percent of voters in the last general election will
\nbe disappointed with the way the party responds their support.<\/p>\n
It should be acknowledged that the axis force does really
\nexist in our new democracy. For many, it may be difficult to
\nunderstand why there should be a third partite in politics. Yet
\nit is a fact that all partisans and observers need to understand
\nthe landscape of Indonesian politics. Such acknowledgement is a
\ngood starting point for all partisans to generate true democracy.<\/p>\n
There is reason to be optimistic for having the widely
\naccepted results of the MPR's session. If all forces can perform
\nas rational, democratic agents, they will produce decisions which
\ncan be accepted by all people. This is the most important thing
\nin the last part of the game. If so, we will be witnessing that
\nthe most difficult part of the political game is generating a
\npolitical certainty. The people will enjoy the concrete result to
\nthe ongoing political change afterward.<\/p>\n
The writer is a lecturer on international relations,
\nParahyangan Catholic University in Bandung.<\/p>\n
Window: ...being satisfied with victory in the elections proves
\nnothing to support the decision of the party's congress on the
\ncandidacy of Megawati for president.<\/p>\n
...there is still a golden opportunity for Megawati to hold
\nthe top office if PDI Perjuangan can adopt a new approach in the
\nremaining days.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/does-megawati-still-have-a-chance-to-win-1447893297",
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