Crisis Worsens, Countries Flock to IMF for Loans

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disclosed that at least 12 countries are preparing to apply for new loans to dampen the effects of soaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions stemming from the war in the Middle East. This situation signals that global crisis pressures are intensifying, particularly for developing countries.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that demand for financial assistance could surge significantly. She estimated that the need for new support could reach US$20 billion to US50billion, equivalenttoRp340trilliontoRp850trillion(atanexchangerateofRp17, 000/US).

“Disruptions from the war could trigger large-scale new demand for financial support, either in the form of new loans or augmentations to existing programmes,” Georgieva said during a press conference on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, as quoted by Reuters on Thursday (16/4/2026).

She added that some sub-Saharan African countries have already begun seeking aid. However, the IMF has not yet discussed additional loan programmes for Egypt, which currently has a facility worth US$8 billion, or approximately Rp136 trillion.

IMF Strategy Chief Christian Mummsen emphasised that the figure is still provisional and could rise. “This is still under review. The number of countries seeking assistance is likely to exceed a dozen,” he said.

The IMF warns that the war’s impacts will not subside quickly, even if the conflict ends abruptly. A key factor is the disruption to energy distribution routes, including the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Georgieva highlighted the sluggish global energy distribution as a trigger for ongoing pressures.

“These disruptions won’t disappear overnight, even if the war ends tomorrow. Tanker ships move slowly; it can take 40 days to reach their destination,” she explained.

Asian countries are said to be most vulnerable due to their heavy reliance on imports of oil, gas, and fertilisers from the Gulf region. The IMF also warns that global economic prospects are deteriorating. In the baseline scenario, world economic growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026.

However, in a worse-case scenario, growth could slow to 2.5% with oil prices reaching US$100 per barrel, or about Rp1.7 million per barrel. In an even more severe crisis scenario due to prolonged conflict, global growth could drop to 2%, approaching recession territory.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that current conditions are shifting towards a more pessimistic scenario. “The global economy is now moving towards a worse scenario than initial projections,” he said.

The IMF cautions countries against rash responses to the energy crisis, particularly through large-scale subsidies. IMF Fiscal Affairs Director Rodrigo Valdes stressed that such policies could exacerbate inflation.

“If you try to counter a supply shock by propping up demand, the result is higher inflation,” he said.

As an alternative, the IMF encourages governments to provide more targeted cash assistance to vulnerable groups. The IMF also urges central banks to remain vigilant against potential inflation spikes without rushing into monetary tightening.

“If you have high credibility, signal that your goal is to maintain price stability, but don’t rush. Wait and see how the situation develops,” Georgieva advised.

On the other hand, central banks with lower credibility may need to take more aggressive steps. Mummsen added that pressures are also mounting in emerging market bond markets, where borrowing costs are rising.

Beyond energy, the crisis is spilling over into the food sector. Fertiliser supply disruptions are expected to push up to 45 million more people into the global food-insecure population. The IMF notes that low-income countries are hit hardest, as food accounts for 36% of their total consumption, far higher than the around 9% in advanced economies.

11 Countries Unite in Emergency Declaration

Meanwhile, AFP reports that 11 countries are urging coordinated emergency economic support amid the widening impacts of the Middle East war. Finance ministers from these countries assess that energy and supply chain disruptions have created serious pressures on global stability.

“We call on the IMF and World Bank to offer coordinated emergency support for countries in need, tailored to country circumstances and leveraging the full range and flexibility of their instruments,” read the joint statement issued by the UK government.

They warn that conflict escalation, including potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, would pose major risks. “A return to hostilities, widening of the conflict, or sustained disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would pose serious additional risks to global energy security, supply chains, and economic and financial stability,” the statement read.

The ministers also emphasised that economic impacts would persist even if the conflict eases. “Even with a sustainable resolution to the conflict, impacts on growth, inflation, and markets will remain,” it continued.

Additionally, they reaffirmed support for Ukraine and commitment to maintaining economic pressure on Russia.

“Russia’s war in Ukraine, now entering its fifth year, continues to have negative impacts on the global economy. Russia must not benefit from this conflict,” the statement read.

The countries signing the declaration include Australia, Finland, Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves affirmed her country’s readiness to ensure the smooth flow of global energy routes. She mentioned that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, together with P