The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disclosed that at least 12\ncountries are preparing to apply for new loans to dampen the effects of\nsoaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions stemming from the war\nin the Middle East. This situation signals that global crisis pressures\nare intensifying, particularly for developing countries.<\/p>\n
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that demand for\nfinancial assistance could surge significantly. She estimated that the\nneed for new support could reach US$20 billion to US \u201cDisruptions from the war could trigger large-scale new demand for\nfinancial support, either in the form of new loans or augmentations to\nexisting programmes,\u201d Georgieva said during a press conference on the\nsidelines of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, as\nquoted by Reuters on Thursday (16\/4\/2026).<\/p>\n She added that some sub-Saharan African countries have already begun\nseeking aid. However, the IMF has not yet discussed additional loan\nprogrammes for Egypt, which currently has a facility worth US$8 billion,\nor approximately Rp136 trillion.<\/p>\n IMF Strategy Chief Christian Mummsen emphasised that the figure is\nstill provisional and could rise. \u201cThis is still under review. The\nnumber of countries seeking assistance is likely to exceed a dozen,\u201d he\nsaid.<\/p>\n The IMF warns that the war\u2019s impacts will not subside quickly, even\nif the conflict ends abruptly. A key factor is the disruption to energy\ndistribution routes, including the potential closure of the Strait of\nHormuz. Georgieva highlighted the sluggish global energy distribution as\na trigger for ongoing pressures.<\/p>\n \u201cThese disruptions won\u2019t disappear overnight, even if the war ends\ntomorrow. Tanker ships move slowly; it can take 40 days to reach their\ndestination,\u201d she explained.<\/p>\n Asian countries are said to be most vulnerable due to their heavy\nreliance on imports of oil, gas, and fertilisers from the Gulf region.\nThe IMF also warns that global economic prospects are deteriorating. In\nthe baseline scenario, world economic growth is projected at 3.1% in\n2026.<\/p>\n However, in a worse-case scenario, growth could slow to 2.5% with oil\nprices reaching US$100 per barrel, or about Rp1.7 million per barrel. In\nan even more severe crisis scenario due to prolonged conflict, global\ngrowth could drop to 2%, approaching recession territory.<\/p>\n IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that current\nconditions are shifting towards a more pessimistic scenario. \u201cThe global\neconomy is now moving towards a worse scenario than initial\nprojections,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The IMF cautions countries against rash responses to the energy\ncrisis, particularly through large-scale subsidies. IMF Fiscal Affairs\nDirector Rodrigo Valdes stressed that such policies could exacerbate\ninflation.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you try to counter a supply shock by propping up demand, the\nresult is higher inflation,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n As an alternative, the IMF encourages governments to provide more\ntargeted cash assistance to vulnerable groups. The IMF also urges\ncentral banks to remain vigilant against potential inflation spikes\nwithout rushing into monetary tightening.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you have high credibility, signal that your goal is to maintain\nprice stability, but don\u2019t rush. Wait and see how the situation\ndevelops,\u201d Georgieva advised.<\/p>\n On the other hand, central banks with lower credibility may need to\ntake more aggressive steps. Mummsen added that pressures are also\nmounting in emerging market bond markets, where borrowing costs are\nrising.<\/p>\n Beyond energy, the crisis is spilling over into the food sector.\nFertiliser supply disruptions are expected to push up to 45 million more\npeople into the global food-insecure population. The IMF notes that\nlow-income countries are hit hardest, as food accounts for 36% of their\ntotal consumption, far higher than the around 9% in advanced\neconomies.<\/p>\n 11 Countries Unite in Emergency Declaration<\/p>\n Meanwhile, AFP reports that 11 countries are urging coordinated\nemergency economic support amid the widening impacts of the Middle East\nwar. Finance ministers from these countries assess that energy and\nsupply chain disruptions have created serious pressures on global\nstability.<\/p>\n \u201cWe call on the IMF and World Bank to offer coordinated emergency\nsupport for countries in need, tailored to country circumstances and\nleveraging the full range and flexibility of their instruments,\u201d read\nthe joint statement issued by the UK government.<\/p>\n They warn that conflict escalation, including potential disruptions\nin the Strait of Hormuz, would pose major risks. \u201cA return to\nhostilities, widening of the conflict, or sustained disruptions in the\nStrait of Hormuz would pose serious additional risks to global energy\nsecurity, supply chains, and economic and financial stability,\u201d the\nstatement read.<\/p>\n The ministers also emphasised that economic impacts would persist\neven if the conflict eases. \u201cEven with a sustainable resolution to the\nconflict, impacts on growth, inflation, and markets will remain,\u201d it\ncontinued.<\/p>\n Additionally, they reaffirmed support for Ukraine and commitment to\nmaintaining economic pressure on Russia.<\/p>\n \u201cRussia\u2019s war in Ukraine, now entering its fifth year, continues to\nhave negative impacts on the global economy. Russia must not benefit\nfrom this conflict,\u201d the statement read.<\/p>\n The countries signing the declaration include Australia, Finland,\nIreland, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Spain,\nSweden, and the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves affirmed her country\u2019s\nreadiness to ensure the smooth flow of global energy routes. She\nmentioned that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, together with P<\/p>",
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