Breaking News! IHSG Opens with Immediate Drop of Over 1%
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) opened down 1.08% or -76.53 points to the level of 7,020.53 this morning, Monday (30/3/2026). Within a few minutes, the IHSG correction deepened further, reaching -1.65%.
251 stocks fell, 161 rose, and 546 remained unchanged. The transaction value reached Rp 404.2 billion, involving 341.2 million shares in 53,920 transactions.
The pressure on the IHSG is expected to continue this week. Yet the IHSG had previously hit an All-Time High of 9,174.47 at the start of 2026. This means that from its highest point this year, the IHSG has already corrected by more than 20%.
In the current conditions, the room for the IHSG to rise remains very limited due to the absence of strong positive catalysts from the global side.
The market is essentially awaiting clear signals such as a ceasefire in the Middle East, the reopening of major energy routes like the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices falling back below US$80 per barrel.
As long as these factors have not occurred, the IHSG will tend to struggle for a significant rebound because external pressures still dominate.
The escalation of the conflict is now entering a more complex phase with the emergence of risks from a double chokepoint.
If previously the market focused only on the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world’s oil passes, attention is now shifting to Bab el-Mandeb after Houthi groups in Yemen became involved in the conflict.
This route is the main connector between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal and accounts for about 6-12% of global trade flows. If both routes are disrupted simultaneously, then around 25-30% of global oil supplies could be affected, thereby increasing the risk of global inflation and heightening the likelihood of a recession. In this scenario, oil prices could remain high for longer.
For Indonesia, this situation adds further pressure because high oil prices above the ideal fiscal comfort zone of below US$80 per barrel.
Assuming the state budget uses an oil price of US$70 per barrel, every US$10 increase can widen the deficit by around Rp51.8 trillion.
If oil prices reach US$100 per barrel, additional energy subsidies are estimated to reach Rp236 trillion, while additional revenues are only around Rp81 trillion, potentially adding to the deficit by up to Rp155 trillion. This fiscal pressure ultimately burdens domestic stock market sentiment as well.
On the other hand, global dynamics are also influenced by the Fed’s policies, which are tasked with maintaining inflation and employment but indirectly also play a role in preserving financial system stability that heavily depends on liquidity.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military stated it is attacking various targets in Iran’s capital, Tehran. The Iranian government also said energy infrastructure has been damaged, but Iranian media reported that electricity has been restored in most of Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj.
A university in the central Iranian city of Isfahan was targeted in an attack for the second time this weekend.
On the other hand, Israel stated that a fire at an industrial site in the southern part of the country—caused by an Iranian attack—has been brought under control, several hours after previously reporting a “hazardous materials incident” in the area. Verified photos show a US military jet severely damaged at an airbase in Saudi Arabia.
Previously, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament said their forces are “waiting” for the arrival of US ground troops to “rain fire upon them”, following the US announcement that around 3,500 troops are in the region along with the USS Tripoli warship.