Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia \u2014 The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG)\nopened down 1.08% or -76.53 points to the level of 7,020.53 this\nmorning, Monday (30\/3\/2026). Within a few minutes, the IHSG correction\ndeepened further, reaching -1.65%.<\/p>\n
251 stocks fell, 161 rose, and 546 remained unchanged. The\ntransaction value reached Rp 404.2 billion, involving 341.2 million\nshares in 53,920 transactions.<\/p>\n
The pressure on the IHSG is expected to continue this week. Yet the\nIHSG had previously hit an All-Time High of 9,174.47 at the start of\n2026. This means that from its highest point this year, the IHSG has\nalready corrected by more than 20%.<\/p>\n
In the current conditions, the room for the IHSG to rise remains very\nlimited due to the absence of strong positive catalysts from the global\nside.<\/p>\n
The market is essentially awaiting clear signals such as a ceasefire\nin the Middle East, the reopening of major energy routes like the Strait\nof Hormuz, and oil prices falling back below US$80 per barrel.<\/p>\n
As long as these factors have not occurred, the IHSG will tend to\nstruggle for a significant rebound because external pressures still\ndominate.<\/p>\n
The escalation of the conflict is now entering a more complex phase\nwith the emergence of risks from a double chokepoint.<\/p>\n
If previously the market focused only on the Strait of Hormuz,\nthrough which around 20% of the world\u2019s oil passes, attention is now\nshifting to Bab el-Mandeb after Houthi groups in Yemen became involved\nin the conflict.<\/p>\n
This route is the main connector between Asia and Europe via the Suez\nCanal and accounts for about 6-12% of global trade flows. If both routes\nare disrupted simultaneously, then around 25-30% of global oil supplies\ncould be affected, thereby increasing the risk of global inflation and\nheightening the likelihood of a recession. In this scenario, oil prices\ncould remain high for longer.<\/p>\n
For Indonesia, this situation adds further pressure because high oil\nprices above the ideal fiscal comfort zone of below US$80 per\nbarrel.<\/p>\n
Assuming the state budget uses an oil price of US$70 per barrel,\nevery US$10 increase can widen the deficit by around Rp51.8\ntrillion.<\/p>\n
If oil prices reach US$100 per barrel, additional energy subsidies\nare estimated to reach Rp236 trillion, while additional revenues are\nonly around Rp81 trillion, potentially adding to the deficit by up to\nRp155 trillion. This fiscal pressure ultimately burdens domestic stock\nmarket sentiment as well.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, global dynamics are also influenced by the Fed\u2019s\npolicies, which are tasked with maintaining inflation and employment but\nindirectly also play a role in preserving financial system stability\nthat heavily depends on liquidity.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the Israeli military stated it is attacking various\ntargets in Iran\u2019s capital, Tehran. The Iranian government also said\nenergy infrastructure has been damaged, but Iranian media reported that\nelectricity has been restored in most of Tehran and the nearby city of\nKaraj.<\/p>\n
A university in the central Iranian city of Isfahan was targeted in\nan attack for the second time this weekend.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, Israel stated that a fire at an industrial site in\nthe southern part of the country\u2014caused by an Iranian attack\u2014has been\nbrought under control, several hours after previously reporting a\n\u201chazardous materials incident\u201d in the area. Verified photos show a US\nmilitary jet severely damaged at an airbase in Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n
Previously, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament said their forces\nare \u201cwaiting\u201d for the arrival of US ground troops to \u201crain fire upon\nthem\u201d, following the US announcement that around 3,500 troops are in the\nregion along with the USS Tripoli warship.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/breaking-news-ihsg-opens-with-immediate-drop-of-over-1-1774839079", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }