BPS Releases Export-Import Data, Rupiah Weakens Towards Rp 17,400 Level
The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar continued to weaken, nearly touching the Rp 17,400 per US dollar level on Monday (4/5/2026). The weakening of the Garuda currency occurred after the release of export-import data by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), where export values were recorded as declining and oil and gas exports experienced a deficit.
Citing Bloomberg, the rupiah weakened by 57 points or 0.33 percent to Rp 17,394 per US dollar at the close of trading on Monday (4/5/2026). In the previous trading session, the rupiah was at Rp 17,353 per US dollar.
Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that the internal sentiment affecting the rupiah’s fluctuating movement today was Indonesia’s March 2026 export-import data recently released by BPS.
BPS recorded Indonesia’s trade balance for March 2026 with a surplus of $3.32 billion, indicating a surplus for 71 consecutive months since May 2020. This surplus condition was driven by exports valued at $22.53 billion, down 3.10 percent from the same period last year, while imports were $19.21 billion, up 1.51 percent.
The March 2026 surplus was supported by non-oil and gas commodities with a surplus of $5.21 billion. Major contributors included vegetable and animal oils and fats, mineral fuels, and iron and steel. “Meanwhile, oil and gas commodities had a deficit of $1.89 billion, with contributors to the deficit being crude oil, oil products, and gas,” Ibrahim said in his statement on Monday (4/5/2026).
The cumulative trade balance for January–March 2026 recorded a surplus of $5.55 billion. The first-quarter 2026 surplus was supported by non-oil and gas commodities amounting to $10.63 billion. Meanwhile, oil and gas commodities still experienced a deficit of $5.08 billion.
“Then, Indonesia’s manufacturing activity is increasingly eroded by the impact of the war, leading to contraction. Data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by S&P Global today shows Indonesia’s PMI at 49.1 in April 2026. This figure is the lowest since July 2025 or the last nine months. This also marks the first contraction since July 2025 after eight months of expansion,” Ibrahim continued, explaining other sentiments.
He explained that the PMI contracted due to a decline in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector conditions in early second quarter 2026 due to several factors. This contraction was driven by a sustained decline in production volume. The decline occurred for two consecutive months, with a faster pace than in March and the fastest since last May.
External Sentiment
Rupiah fluctuations are also influenced by external sentiments, particularly the dynamics of warfare in the Middle East between Iran and the US-Israel.
US President Donald Trump stated that the US will begin efforts to free stranded ships in the Strait of Hormuz. “For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the US, we have informed these countries that we will guide their ships safely out of these prohibited waterways so they can freely continue their business,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social site on Sunday.
“Trump has made a nuclear deal with Tehran a priority, while Iran proposes setting aside the nuclear issue until after the war ends and both parties agree to lift the conflicting blockades on shipping in the Gulf,” he said.
Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, Ukraine launched a series of drone attacks on targets in Russia on Sunday, striking the Primorsk port in the Baltic Sea and setting it ablaze, as well as attacking several ships. This occurred amid increased attacks on energy infrastructure and other targets.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the attacks caused significant damage to the oil terminal. The attacks also hit an oil tanker, a Russian Karakurt-class small missile ship, and a patrol boat in the Baltic Sea, he said on Telegram.
Based on these various sentiments, Ibrahim predicts that the rupiah exchange rate will continue to weaken in the next trading session on Tuesday (5/5/2026).
“It is predicted that on Tuesday’s trading, the rupiah currency will move fluctuatively but close weaker in the range of Rp 17,390–Rp 17,440 per US dollar,” he concluded.