The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar continued to weaken,\nnearly touching the Rp 17,400 per US dollar level on Monday (4\/5\/2026).\nThe weakening of the Garuda currency occurred after the release of\nexport-import data by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), where export values\nwere recorded as declining and oil and gas exports experienced a\ndeficit.<\/p>\n
Citing Bloomberg, the rupiah weakened by 57 points or 0.33 percent to\nRp 17,394 per US dollar at the close of trading on Monday (4\/5\/2026). In\nthe previous trading session, the rupiah was at Rp 17,353 per US\ndollar.<\/p>\n
Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that the\ninternal sentiment affecting the rupiah\u2019s fluctuating movement today was\nIndonesia\u2019s March 2026 export-import data recently released by BPS.<\/p>\n
BPS recorded Indonesia\u2019s trade balance for March 2026 with a surplus\nof $3.32 billion, indicating a surplus for 71 consecutive months since\nMay 2020. This surplus condition was driven by exports valued at $22.53\nbillion, down 3.10 percent from the same period last year, while imports\nwere $19.21 billion, up 1.51 percent.<\/p>\n
The March 2026 surplus was supported by non-oil and gas commodities\nwith a surplus of $5.21 billion. Major contributors included vegetable\nand animal oils and fats, mineral fuels, and iron and steel. \u201cMeanwhile,\noil and gas commodities had a deficit of $1.89 billion, with\ncontributors to the deficit being crude oil, oil products, and gas,\u201d\nIbrahim said in his statement on Monday (4\/5\/2026).<\/p>\n
The cumulative trade balance for January\u2013March 2026 recorded a\nsurplus of $5.55 billion. The first-quarter 2026 surplus was supported\nby non-oil and gas commodities amounting to $10.63 billion. Meanwhile,\noil and gas commodities still experienced a deficit of $5.08\nbillion.<\/p>\n
\u201cThen, Indonesia\u2019s manufacturing activity is increasingly eroded by\nthe impact of the war, leading to contraction. Data from the Purchasing\nManagers\u2019 Index (PMI) released by S&P Global today shows Indonesia\u2019s\nPMI at 49.1 in April 2026. This figure is the lowest since July 2025 or\nthe last nine months. This also marks the first contraction since July\n2025 after eight months of expansion,\u201d Ibrahim continued, explaining\nother sentiments.<\/p>\n
He explained that the PMI contracted due to a decline in Indonesia\u2019s\nmanufacturing sector conditions in early second quarter 2026 due to\nseveral factors. This contraction was driven by a sustained decline in\nproduction volume. The decline occurred for two consecutive months, with\na faster pace than in March and the fastest since last May.<\/p>\n
External Sentiment<\/p>\n
Rupiah fluctuations are also influenced by external sentiments,\nparticularly the dynamics of warfare in the Middle East between Iran and\nthe US-Israel.<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump stated that the US will begin efforts to\nfree stranded ships in the Strait of Hormuz. \u201cFor the good of Iran, the\nMiddle East, and the US, we have informed these countries that we will\nguide their ships safely out of these prohibited waterways so they can\nfreely continue their business,\u201d Trump wrote in a post on his Truth\nSocial site on Sunday.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump has made a nuclear deal with Tehran a priority, while Iran\nproposes setting aside the nuclear issue until after the war ends and\nboth parties agree to lift the conflicting blockades on shipping in the\nGulf,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, Ukraine launched a series of drone\nattacks on targets in Russia on Sunday, striking the Primorsk port in\nthe Baltic Sea and setting it ablaze, as well as attacking several\nships. This occurred amid increased attacks on energy infrastructure and\nother targets.<\/p>\n
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the attacks caused\nsignificant damage to the oil terminal. The attacks also hit an oil\ntanker, a Russian Karakurt-class small missile ship, and a patrol boat\nin the Baltic Sea, he said on Telegram.<\/p>\n
Based on these various sentiments, Ibrahim predicts that the rupiah\nexchange rate will continue to weaken in the next trading session on\nTuesday (5\/5\/2026).<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is predicted that on Tuesday\u2019s trading, the rupiah currency will\nmove fluctuatively but close weaker in the range of Rp 17,390\u2013Rp 17,440\nper US dollar,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/bps-releases-export-import-data-rupiah-weakens-towards-rp-17-400-level-1777892037", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }