Arroyo more reliant on military powers after mutiny: Analysts
Arroyo more reliant on military powers after mutiny: Analysts
Cecil Morella, Agence France-Presse, Manila
The failed mutiny in the Philippines has highlighted how
President Gloria Arroyo's political future is inextricably linked
with the armed forces leaders who brought her to power, analysts
said on Monday.
Despite the collapse of the uprising by disgruntled junior
officers, analysts said the eighth military rebellion in 17 years
showed how little headway has been made in reforming the key
pillar of government.
Arroyo "becomes even more beholden" to the generals who helped
put the former vice president in power less than three years ago,
said Rex Robles at the Manila-based RCR security risk management
consultancy.
He said that whatever the outcome of the revolt, Arroyo would
no longer be a serious player by the time of the next
presidential elections in May 2004. She has yet to decide whether
to stand.
Bruce Gale, Singapore-based political risk analyst of Hill and
Associates Risk Consultancy, said that to some extent it could be
argued the 55 year-old grandmother was now a hostage to the
military.
But he said "the fact that they surrendered so quickly limited
the potential damage to (Arroyo). Now she can go to the nation
and say, 'We had this problem and we had dealt with it.'"
Gale said there was no doubt the mutiny was an embarrassment
coming hard on the heels of the escape of top Jamaah Islamiyah
bombmaker Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi from a Manila police cell.
"But it is too early to say it will affect her chances in the
election," he added.
About 300 special forces troops seized a complex in the Makati
financial district before dawn on Sunday, hours after Arroyo
accused the young officers of hatching a plot against her
government.
The uprising collapsed on Sunday night after the soldiers
failed to rally popular support or help from other military
units.
The leaders of the uprising called for Arroyo and Defense
Minister Angelo Reyes to resign, accusing them of corruption and
instigating terrorist attacks in the south to win more anti-
terror aid from the United States.
They also complained about endemic graft by senior military
officers, poor pay and conditions for lower ranks, and lack of
logistical support to soldiers on the frontlines fighting Muslim
and Communist rebels.
Arroyo has staked her reputation on a close alliance with the
United States in the war on terrorism, and has received U.S.
military support and advisers to go after Muslim militants in the
south of the country.
"You can't put the genie back in the bottle, but you can do
something to the environment by which these grievances emanate,"
said Clarita Carlos, a political science professor at the
University of the Philippines.
Unless the government pays attention to address the rebels'
apparently legitimate grievances, "sometime in the future you'll
have that thing again," warned Carlos, a former president of the
state-run National Defense College.
Carlos said she did not condone the rebellion, but that
corruption needed to be tackled.
Robles cited government allegations that the mutineers must
have gotten logistical support from the camp of detained ex-
president Joseph Estrada, who he said "still looms large in the
background of Philippine politics."
"I wouldn't be surprised to see some government concessions to
Estrada in the next few weeks. He helped Arroyo by not doing
things" that could have contributed to the success of the revolt,
Robles added.
Earlier on Monday police arrested Ramon Cardenas, Estrada's
former political adviser, and alleged they found weapons and
ammunition linked to the coup at his house.