Arroyo more reliant on military powers after mutiny: Analysts<\/p>\n
Cecil Morella, Agence France-Presse, Manila<\/p>\n
The failed mutiny in the Philippines has highlighted how
\nPresident Gloria Arroyo's political future is inextricably linked
\nwith the armed forces leaders who brought her to power, analysts
\nsaid on Monday.<\/p>\n
Despite the collapse of the uprising by disgruntled junior
\nofficers, analysts said the eighth military rebellion in 17 years
\nshowed how little headway has been made in reforming the key
\npillar of government.<\/p>\n
Arroyo \"becomes even more beholden\" to the generals who helped
\nput the former vice president in power less than three years ago,
\nsaid Rex Robles at the Manila-based RCR security risk management
\nconsultancy.<\/p>\n
He said that whatever the outcome of the revolt, Arroyo would
\nno longer be a serious player by the time of the next
\npresidential elections in May 2004. She has yet to decide whether
\nto stand.<\/p>\n
Bruce Gale, Singapore-based political risk analyst of Hill and
\nAssociates Risk Consultancy, said that to some extent it could be
\nargued the 55 year-old grandmother was now a hostage to the
\nmilitary.<\/p>\n
But he said \"the fact that they surrendered so quickly limited
\nthe potential damage to (Arroyo). Now she can go to the nation
\nand say, 'We had this problem and we had dealt with it.'\"<\/p>\n
Gale said there was no doubt the mutiny was an embarrassment
\ncoming hard on the heels of the escape of top Jamaah Islamiyah
\nbombmaker Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi from a Manila police cell.<\/p>\n
\"But it is too early to say it will affect her chances in the
\nelection,\" he added.<\/p>\n
About 300 special forces troops seized a complex in the Makati
\nfinancial district before dawn on Sunday, hours after Arroyo
\naccused the young officers of hatching a plot against her
\ngovernment.<\/p>\n
The uprising collapsed on Sunday night after the soldiers
\nfailed to rally popular support or help from other military
\nunits.<\/p>\n
The leaders of the uprising called for Arroyo and Defense
\nMinister Angelo Reyes to resign, accusing them of corruption and
\ninstigating terrorist attacks in the south to win more anti-
\nterror aid from the United States.<\/p>\n
They also complained about endemic graft by senior military
\nofficers, poor pay and conditions for lower ranks, and lack of
\nlogistical support to soldiers on the frontlines fighting Muslim
\nand Communist rebels.<\/p>\n
Arroyo has staked her reputation on a close alliance with the
\nUnited States in the war on terrorism, and has received U.S.
\nmilitary support and advisers to go after Muslim militants in the
\nsouth of the country.<\/p>\n
\"You can't put the genie back in the bottle, but you can do
\nsomething to the environment by which these grievances emanate,\"
\nsaid Clarita Carlos, a political science professor at the
\nUniversity of the Philippines.<\/p>\n
Unless the government pays attention to address the rebels'
\napparently legitimate grievances, \"sometime in the future you'll
\nhave that thing again,\" warned Carlos, a former president of the
\nstate-run National Defense College.<\/p>\n
Carlos said she did not condone the rebellion, but that
\ncorruption needed to be tackled.<\/p>\n
Robles cited government allegations that the mutineers must
\nhave gotten logistical support from the camp of detained ex-
\npresident Joseph Estrada, who he said \"still looms large in the
\nbackground of Philippine politics.\"<\/p>\n
\"I wouldn't be surprised to see some government concessions to
\nEstrada in the next few weeks. He helped Arroyo by not doing
\nthings\" that could have contributed to the success of the revolt,
\nRobles added.<\/p>\n
Earlier on Monday police arrested Ramon Cardenas, Estrada's
\nformer political adviser, and alleged they found weapons and
\nammunition linked to the coup at his house.<\/p>",
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