4 Facts Why the US-Iran War Will Not End Soon
US President Donald Trump has signalled that his country will soon end its involvement in the conflict with Iran. This step is being taken without toppling the Iranian regime, opening the Strait of Hormuz, or reaching an official agreement with Tehran to halt attacks on the US and its allies.
Citing CNN, Trump stated that the main strategic objectives are nearly achieved. He noted that significant damage has been inflicted on Iran’s military programme, including its missile capabilities, navy, and proxy networks.
Trump also emphasised that the most difficult phase of the conflict has been overcome and is optimistic that this withdrawal can ease global economic pressures, particularly from disruptions to energy and shipping routes in the Persian Gulf.
However, Iran has asserted that it will determine when the war ends. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that his country is prepared to continue the conflict for at least the next six months.
Several analysts assess that the United States’ rapid withdrawal could potentially prolong the conflict. Here are the four main reasons.
Although Trump claims the objective of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons has been achieved, reports indicate that more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium remains unaccounted for.
This situation raises concerns that Iran may accelerate its nuclear programme. Moreover, changes in leadership and the strengthening of hardline groups could drive more aggressive policies.
Rather than weakening, Iran could become more insular and bolder in developing its military capabilities.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for global energy distribution. If the US withdraws without an agreement to reopen the route, Iran could unilaterally control shipping traffic.
This could create significant pressure on global energy markets. Oil and fuel prices would remain high due to supply disruptions, even though the United States does not fully rely on energy imports from the region.
This condition also opens opportunities for Iran to gain additional economic benefits through control of international shipping lanes.
During the conflict, Iran has launched direct attacks on Gulf states’ territories and disrupted their oil exports.
If the United States withdraws without a security agreement, Gulf countries risk facing continued attack threats. Additionally, Iran could gain greater influence in determining energy export flows from the region.
This move could also damage trust in the United States’ long-promised security protection commitments.
Without active US involvement, Israel is likely to continue its military operations against Iran and its allies.
This could expand the conflict to other areas such as Lebanon and Gaza. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that Iran will cease retaliatory attacks, leaving the risk of escalation high.
This situation keeps the potential for a broader regional conflict open.