Zero Percent Presidential Threshold to End the Era of Fat Coalitions?

The Constitutional Court (MK) ruling that abolishes the presidential nomination threshold, setting it at zero percent, has raised new hopes for electoral democracy in Indonesia. Theoretically, this policy opens up wider opportunities for political parties (parpol) to nominate pairs of presidential (capres) and vice-presidential (cawapres) candidates without needing to form coalitions. So, will the era of fat coalitions truly end because coalitions are no longer required to nominate capres? Director of the Indonesia Political Review (IPR), Iwan Setiawan, and political observer from UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, Adi Prayitno, assess that political reality is not as simple as calculations on paper. Adi Prayitno explains that, referring to normative logic, the abolition of the presidential threshold should end the practice of large coalitions in presidential nominations. “Theoretically on paper, the era of fat coalitions in fielding presidential election candidates should end because the presidential threshold is now zero according to the MK ruling,” Adi told Kompas.com on Monday (13/4/2026). “Because all political parties participating in the election, whether those that have passed parliament or not, can now nominate their own capres and cawapres,” he said. Nevertheless, Adi doubts that all parties will take advantage of this opportunity. He assesses that there are several structural constraints that make coalitions remain a rational choice. First, not all parties have figures with strong electoral appeal. Second, logistical limitations due to the very high cost of the presidential election. Third, the presence of an inferiority mentality, especially in facing incumbents. “That is why fat coalitions will still occur in 2029. There is a tendency for parties to lack the courage to field their own internal champions,” said Adi. In fact, according to Adi, the abolition of the threshold is a “sweet gift” from the MK that should be utilised.