Zeitwendestudy: German Public Trust in the US Plummets Sharply
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the German military (Bundeswehr) has again been at the centre of political debate in Berlin. But one in-depth study reveals that the most significant shift is not only in government policy but in the fundamental opinions of the German public towards their main ally, the United States.
Dr. Timo Graf, senior researcher at the Centre for Military History and Social Science of the Bundeswehr in Potsdam, presented surprising findings in his study entitled Germany in a Military Leadership Role? Public Opinion on Security and Defence Policy 2025. The study is part of an annual survey conducted since 1996.
The most striking finding in 2025 data is a sharp decline in German public trust in the United States as a NATO ally. Dr. Graf notes that trust has fallen by up to 28 percentage points on several specific questions.
The phenomenon is reinforced by what is called the Trump Effect. Although the survey was conducted just as Donald Trump had recently resumed office, expectations of a fraught security relationship with Europe have damaged the image of the US. Currently, only about three-quarters of respondents still consider the US a reliable partner.
Dr. Graf refutes the notion that Germans are a pacifist people because of their history. The data show that Germany has never been a wholly pacifist society; only around 20% strongly reject military power in principle.
“Germans approach the use of military force cautiously because they see it as a serious step, not because they oppose it in principle,” said Dr. Graf. He added that the Zeitenwende – the turning point – is not so much about attitudes towards the Bundeswehr as about the population’s willingness to back collective defence missions in Europe.
Although younger generations tend to be more cautious on defence issues due to less direct contact with the military since conscription was abolished in 2011, the majority of them still support higher defence spending. The gap in support between young and old is only about 5-6 percentage points.
Politically, support for strengthening the military also crosses party lines. Even among Die Linke and Green voters, a majority of respondents now see Russia as a threat and back greater defence investment.
This shift in public opinion is also reflected in support for placing German troops on the eastern flank of NATO, such as in Lithuania and Poland. About 50% of citizens agree that Germany should provide military support to the Baltic states to defend themselves against Russia.
“Russia is seen as a far more consequential threat, ranging from migration issues and inflation to a real military threat to Europe as a whole,” concluded Dr. Graf. The combination of the Russia threat and eroding trust in the US is driving Germans to demand greater European defence autonomy.
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