Zakat Fitrah Potential in 2026 Set to Reach Rp 7.1 Trillion, Lower Than Previous Year
The Institute for Demographic and Affluence Studies (IDEAS) estimates Indonesia’s national zakat fitrah potential for Ramadan 2026 at between 480.1–541.4 thousand tonnes of rice, equivalent to Rp 6.4–7.1 trillion.
The zakat fitrah potential is calculated based on an estimated number of zakat contributors (muzakki) reaching 192.0–216.6 million people in Indonesia, representing approximately 80–90 per cent of the total Muslim population.
Although the volume has increased compared to the previous year, its economic value is projected to decline. In 2025, zakat fitrah potential was estimated at 476.3–536.8 thousand tonnes of rice, or approximately Rp 6.8–7.5 trillion.
According to IDEAS researcher Tira Mutiara, the increase in rice volume is primarily driven by a growing number of zakat contributors. However, the declining rice prices, which form the basis of the calculation, have caused the rupiah value of zakat fitrah to decrease.
“In volume terms, zakat fitrah has increased because the number of contributors has grown. However, when converted to rupiah value, the potential has actually declined by approximately 5.5–6.39 per cent compared to the previous year. This is influenced by the decline in average rice prices consumed by households,” Mutiara stated.
In IDEAS’s simulation, zakat fitrah values are calculated based on the potential rice zakat multiplied by the average price of rice typically consumed by households according to expenditure deciles and district/city regions.
The decline in zakat fitrah values is influenced by two main factors. Firstly, rice prices that previously peaked have now shown a downward trend. Whereas prices previously reached approximately Rp 16,000 per kilogramme, current average rice prices stand at around Rp 15,000 per kilogramme.
Secondly, there is evidence of a shift in household consumption patterns away from premium rice towards more affordable varieties. This shift reflects households’ efforts to adjust amid purchasing power pressure following food price increases in recent years.
According to Mutiara, the largest decline in zakat fitrah values occurred among upper-middle-class zakat contributors, decreasing from approximately Rp 3.8 trillion in 2025 to Rp 3.5 trillion in 2026, a decline of around 8.9 per cent.
“This situation demonstrates that economic pressure is not only felt by poor and vulnerable groups, but is beginning to affect the middle class. Their fiscal space is increasingly constrained, including for fulfilling social and religious obligations such as zakat fitrah,” Mutiara said.
Pressure on the middle class is also reflected in the latest data on the composition of economic groups in Indonesia. In 2025, the middle-class population was recorded at 46.6 million people, representing approximately 16.6 per cent of the total population, a decline of around 1.1 million people compared to the previous year.
Additionally, the Mandiri Saving Index as of 24 January 2026 showed that the middle-class savings index declined to 100.7, down from 101.2 in December 2025.
“When the middle class faces pressure, the impact extends beyond household consumption to philanthropic activities. This group has been an important contributor to zakat, infak, alms, and social donations,” Mutiara added.
Despite the decline in zakat fitrah values, this instrument remains important as a consumption buffer for poor and vulnerable households. Zakat fitrah of 2.5 kilogrammes of staple food can help improve food access for those in need.
In IDEAS’s simulation, zakat fitrah recipients are estimated to be Muslim residents in the first decile (the poorest group) numbering 24.1 million people. If they receive zakat fitrah of 480.1–541.4 thousand tonnes of rice, daily per capita rice consumption could increase from 0.210 kilogrammes to 0.873–0.958 kilogrammes over one month.
If zakat fitrah is paid in cash with a potential value of Rp 6.4–7.1 trillion, recipients are estimated to receive approximately Rp 265,000–296,000 per capita. This additional amount could increase the average food consumption expenditure of the poorest group from Rp 322,000 per capita per month to approximately Rp 588,000–618,000 per capita per month during Ramadan.
Mutiara noted that zakat fitrah impacts not only beneficiaries but also contributes to economic circulation within communities.
“Zakat fitrah can serve as an economic buffer for vulnerable groups to maintain food consumption. At the same time, its distribution also drives economic circulation at the community level,” Mutiara concluded.