Y2K problems most likely in Russia and RI: CIA

Y2K problems most likely in Russia and RI: CIA

WASHINGTON (AP): Old Soviet-designed nuclear plants in Russia
and Ukraine are the most vulnerable to potential year-2000
computer failures, particularly if combined with power losses, a
CIA official said Thursday.

These so-called Chernobyl-type reactors have "inherent design
problems," including lack of total containment systems, said
Lawrence Gershwin, the CIA's national intelligence officer for
science and technology.

"The chance of a nuclear incident in Russia, Ukraine or
another state with Soviet-designed reactors during the Y2K
rollover is low," Gerswhin told a congressional hearing.

"It is, however, higher than normal because of the likelihood
that the power grid could experience failures. ... In the worst
case, this could cause a meltdown and in some cases, an
accompanying release of radioactive fission gases causing
localized contamination."

Still, Gershwin told the House International Relations
Committee, the chance of a mishap on the scale of the 1986
accident at Chernobyl "is extremely low."

Gershwin said the CIA has determined that Russia, Ukraine,
China and Indonesia are the major countries most likely to
experience "significant Y2K-related failures."

Countries in Western Europe are better prepared, however Italy
is not as far along as other major European countries. The CIA
official said that Germany and Japan are making "great strides,"
but that both economic powers got a late start and risk some
failures.

Outside the United States, Canada, Britain, Australia,
Singapore and Hong Kong have the lowest chances of experiencing
significant problems, the CIA official said.

Gershwin told the panel that "we are highly confident that Y2K
failures will not lead to the inadvertent or unauthorized launch
of a ballistic missile by any country."

The committee is looking into potential disruptions abroad
caused by Y2K problems, and their impact on the millions of
Americans who are living or traveling overseas.

John O'Keefe, director of Y2K programs for the State
Department, said the agency had inventoried 23,000 items in U.S.
embassies and consulates in 164 nations to make sure they were
all Y2K-compliant.

Each of these overseas posts are prepared to report to the
State Department at one hour past midnight local time on Jan. 1
to relay information on any potential problems, O'Keefe said.

Many countries are lagging in their efforts, and electric
power grids, telecommunications systems and the medical sector
appear the most vulnerable, O'Keefe said.