World Oil Prices Predicted to Reach 120 US Dollars, Here Are the Triggering Factors
Jakarta — World crude oil prices have returned to the attention of global market participants following several investment banks and energy research institutions revising upwards their price forecasts for the commodity.
The escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and potential disruptions to distribution through the Strait of Hormuz are considered the primary factors driving the revision of crude oil price outlooks, particularly for Brent as the global benchmark.
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, and research institutions Wood Mackenzie and Macquarie assess that crude oil price volatility could increase in the short term.
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude prices for March 2026, estimating average prices will be above 100 US dollars per barrel. This revision was made after the investment bank updated its assumptions regarding oil flow disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
“We estimate that only approximately 10 per cent of normal oil volumes will flow through the Strait of Hormuz during one month, before gradually recovering,” Goldman Sachs stated in its report, as cited by Oilprice.com.
The investment bank also estimates significant impacts on regional oil production. Goldman Sachs noted that approximately 200 million barrels of Middle Eastern oil production could be lost during March 2026 due to disrupted export routes.
In the same report, Goldman analysts added that daily price volatility could increase sharply. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs still anticipates price stabilisation in the medium term. The bank raised its forecast for Brent crude prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 to approximately 71 US dollars per barrel, up from the previous 66 US dollars.
Meanwhile, the forecast for the US crude oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was revised to 67 US dollars, up from the previous 62 US dollars per barrel.
Goldman Sachs also estimates that average Brent crude prices could reach approximately 98 US dollars per barrel in March and April 2026, with potential increases reaching up to 110 US dollars under an upside risk scenario.
The vast majority of oil exports from Gulf nations pass through this sea route, so distribution disruptions directly trigger market concerns.
Goldman Sachs believes geopolitical risk premiums are likely to remain elevated. “The geopolitical risk premium is likely to remain elevated amid uncertainty surrounding Iran and ongoing tensions involving Russia,” Goldman Sachs analysts stated.