World Bank Cuts Indonesia's Economic Projection, Finance Minister Calls It a Grave Sin
Finance Minister (Menkeu) Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has issued a sharp critique of the World Bank after the international institution revised its projection for Indonesia’s 2026 economic growth from 4.8% to 4.7%. Purbaya stated that this revision could potentially create negative sentiment in the markets.
“The World Bank has committed a grave sin by lowering the economic projection. This could create bad sentiment for us,” Purbaya said at the Ministry of Finance office in Jakarta on Thursday (9/4).
The Finance Minister assessed that the World Bank was mistaken in its calculations for Indonesia’s economic growth projection. He highlighted that the World Bank predicted a sharp decline in Indonesia’s economy, nearly heading towards recession, before stabilising again.
“The World Bank calculated that we would face a recession and a drastic decline (in the economic projection), even if our average is only at 4.6%. I think they miscalculated,” Purbaya said.
However, Purbaya emphasised that the government would not be overly affected by this revision. The government’s main focus, he continued, is to maintain national economic resilience and ensure a conducive investment climate amid global turbulence.
“What is more important for us is to ensure the right programmes, safeguard the financial system, and improve the investment climate. I am confident that with these efforts, we will be able to restore economic growth,” he explained.
Purbaya also noted that one factor influencing the World Bank’s revision of the projection is the high global oil prices. He is optimistic that if oil prices fall, the World Bank is likely to revise the projection again.
“I am confident that the World Bank calculated this due to the impact of high oil prices. If oil prices drop in the next month, their projection might change,” he added.
The Finance Minister also hopes for an apology from the World Bank if they revise Indonesia’s economic prediction again.
“Later, I will wait for their apology if they change their prediction after oil prices return to normal,” Purbaya said.
Purbaya then emphasised that the government will continue to maximise all domestic economic potentials to maintain strong growth.
“I will optimise all the economic engines we have. Perhaps the World Bank does not yet know our strategies to safeguard the economy,” Purbaya said, taking a jab at the international institution.
In its April 2026 edition of the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released on Wednesday (8/4), the World Bank indeed cut its projection for Indonesia’s 2026 economic growth to 4.7%, down from the previous estimate of 4.8%. This decline is estimated to be related to pressures from rising oil prices and risk-off sentiment, which will largely be offset by commodity revenues and state-led investment initiatives.
The report also noted that Indonesia experienced a period of pressure in the stock market in early 2026. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) announced it would freeze Indonesian securities in its index pending further evaluation in May 2026. This step was taken due to issues with non-transparent ownership structures and low free float levels, which are considered to hinder investment eligibility.
However, the World Bank is optimistic that Indonesia’s economy will recover, with a higher growth projection of 5.2% in 2027, driven by investments and monetary easing.