WMO Warns 2026 El Niño Could Trigger Droughts and Heatwaves
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the developing El Niño phenomenon has the potential to trigger an increase in global temperatures and unusual rainfall patterns in the coming months, thereby increasing the risk of various extreme weather events in many regions of the world.
In its latest report on El Niño/La Niña, the WMO revealed that the probability of an El Niño event occurring during the period from June to August 2026 reaches 80 per cent. The probability of this phenomenon persisting at least until November rises to nearly or exceeding 90 per cent.
Although uncertainty remains regarding the timing and peak strength of the phenomenon, most forecast models indicate that the developing El Niño will be at least moderate and has the potential to become strong.
United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterress stated that the world must treat the arrival of El Niño as an urgent climate warning. “The science is clear. El Niño will arrive in the coming months with a 90 per cent level of certainty. The world must treat it as an urgent climate warning,” Guterres said in a video statement quoted from the official WMO website on Tuesday (2/6/2026).
Guterres noted that El Niño conditions will exacerbate the ongoing impacts of global warming. The effects are expected to be felt more strongly, reaching wider areas and crossing national borders rapidly.
Guterres emphasised that an effective response involves accelerating climate action by reducing dependence on fossil fuels, speeding up the transition to renewable energy, protecting vulnerable groups, and providing early warning systems for all communities.
WMO observations show that sea surface temperatures in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—the reference area for ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) monitoring—from late April to mid-May have approached the El Niño threshold. This increase in surface temperature is driven by subsurface ocean conditions that are much warmer than normal in the tropical Pacific. The WMO noted that subsurface sea temperatures in several locations reached more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, creating a large heat reservoir that continues to drive surface warming.
Additionally, the Southern Oscillation Index, an atmospheric indicator that is part of the El Niño phenomenon, also shows a pattern consistent with El Niño development.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the world needs to prepare for the possibility of a strong El Niño, as the phenomenon has the potential to worsen droughts, increase extreme rainfall, and trigger heatwaves on both land and sea. She reminded that the 2023-2024 El Niño was one of the five strongest events ever recorded and contributed to the record global temperatures seen in 2024.
“We need to prepare ourselves for the possibility of a strong El Niño. Seasonal forecasts and early warning systems are crucial to saving lives and reducing impacts on economies and societies,” said Saulo.
El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO, one of the most influential natural climate patterns on Earth. This phenomenon is characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts approximately nine to 12 months. Generally, El Niño begins to develop between March and June, peaking between November and February. The impact on global temperatures is usually most felt in the second year following its emergence.
The WMO emphasised that there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño. However, global warming can amplify its impacts because warmer oceans and atmospheres provide more energy and moisture to trigger extreme weather, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.