The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the\ndeveloping El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon has the potential to trigger an increase\nin global temperatures and unusual rainfall patterns in the coming\nmonths, thereby increasing the risk of various extreme weather events in\nmany regions of the world.<\/p>\n
In its latest report on El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a, the WMO revealed that the\nprobability of an El Ni\u00f1o event occurring during the period from June to\nAugust 2026 reaches 80 per cent. The probability of this phenomenon\npersisting at least until November rises to nearly or exceeding 90 per\ncent.<\/p>\n
Although uncertainty remains regarding the timing and peak strength\nof the phenomenon, most forecast models indicate that the developing El\nNi\u00f1o will be at least moderate and has the potential to become\nstrong.<\/p>\n
United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterress stated that\nthe world must treat the arrival of El Ni\u00f1o as an urgent climate\nwarning. \u201cThe science is clear. El Ni\u00f1o will arrive in the coming months\nwith a 90 per cent level of certainty. The world must treat it as an\nurgent climate warning,\u201d Guterres said in a video statement quoted from\nthe official WMO website on Tuesday (2\/6\/2026).<\/p>\n
Guterres noted that El Ni\u00f1o conditions will exacerbate the ongoing\nimpacts of global warming. The effects are expected to be felt more\nstrongly, reaching wider areas and crossing national borders\nrapidly.<\/p>\n
Guterres emphasised that an effective response involves accelerating\nclimate action by reducing dependence on fossil fuels, speeding up the\ntransition to renewable energy, protecting vulnerable groups, and\nproviding early warning systems for all communities.<\/p>\n
WMO observations show that sea surface temperatures in the central to\neastern equatorial Pacific Ocean\u2014the reference area for ENSO (El\nNi\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation) monitoring\u2014from late April to mid-May have\napproached the El Ni\u00f1o threshold. This increase in surface temperature\nis driven by subsurface ocean conditions that are much warmer than\nnormal in the tropical Pacific. The WMO noted that subsurface sea\ntemperatures in several locations reached more than 6 degrees Celsius\nabove average, creating a large heat reservoir that continues to drive\nsurface warming.<\/p>\n
Additionally, the Southern Oscillation Index, an atmospheric\nindicator that is part of the El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon, also shows a pattern\nconsistent with El Ni\u00f1o development.<\/p>\n
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the world needs to\nprepare for the possibility of a strong El Ni\u00f1o, as the phenomenon has\nthe potential to worsen droughts, increase extreme rainfall, and trigger\nheatwaves on both land and sea. She reminded that the 2023-2024 El Ni\u00f1o\nwas one of the five strongest events ever recorded and contributed to\nthe record global temperatures seen in 2024.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe need to prepare ourselves for the possibility of a strong El\nNi\u00f1o. Seasonal forecasts and early warning systems are crucial to saving\nlives and reducing impacts on economies and societies,\u201d said Saulo.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o is the warm phase of ENSO, one of the most influential\nnatural climate patterns on Earth. This phenomenon is characterised by\nthe warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern\nequatorial Pacific. El Ni\u00f1o typically occurs every two to seven years\nand lasts approximately nine to 12 months. Generally, El Ni\u00f1o begins to\ndevelop between March and June, peaking between November and February.\nThe impact on global temperatures is usually most felt in the second\nyear following its emergence.<\/p>\n
The WMO emphasised that there is no evidence that climate change\nincreases the frequency or intensity of El Ni\u00f1o. However, global warming\ncan amplify its impacts because warmer oceans and atmospheres provide\nmore energy and moisture to trigger extreme weather, such as heatwaves\nand heavy rainfall.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/wmo-warns-2026-el-nino-could-trigger-droughts-and-heatwaves-1780857769", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }