Without Plastic, Shopping Costs Could Rise 21 Percent, Here's the Calculation

The global rise in plastic raw material prices is beginning to affect various sectors, including the cost of everyday necessities. At the same time, the push to reduce plastic use continues to grow.

Industry players assess that plastic still plays a role in maintaining distribution efficiency and product durability. However, plastic use is increasingly pressured for environmental reasons, leading to the need for more sustainable alternatives without driving up prices.

A recent study from the American Consumer Institute highlights the potential economic impact of eliminating plastic packaging. The report titled ‘Material Substitution Costing Analysis’, conducted by Calvin Lakhan, shows a potential for significant price increases.

“Plastic is also one of the main reasons why consumer goods remain affordable and accessible,” said ACI President and CEO Tirzah Duren, as quoted from Yahoo Finance on Thursday, 16 April 2026.

The study’s findings indicate that removing plastic packaging could drive up the price of necessities by up to 21.6 percent. On average, family shopping costs are estimated to increase by around US$60.75 per visit.

This price hike is triggered by various factors, such as higher costs of replacement materials, increased distribution expenses, and greater product damage risks without plastic packaging. Additionally, changes in production processes require further investment.

In a simple simulation of breakfast needs, the impact is also evident. Replacing plastic in products like milk, bacon, and frozen fruit could raise costs by up to 24.5 percent, or about US$6.34 per shop.

Several product categories are expected to see substantial price increases, including milk up to 38.3 percent, soft drinks up to 55.1 percent, and meat and frozen foods around 15 to 28 percent.

Nevertheless, these findings are based on simulations and certain assumptions, including a scenario of widespread plastic elimination without more efficient alternative solutions. Therefore, the results should be viewed in a broader context.

The study also notes that price increases could be more acutely felt by low- to middle-income households, as they spend a larger proportion on basic needs.