Will Kim Jong Un's Younger Sister and Daughter Compete for the Throne?

The latest news from North Korea has sparked speculation about the future of the Pyongyang regime and Kim Jong Un’s succession plans, as his sister gains greater formal power while his young daughter becomes increasingly visible in public.

Kim Yo Jong, the sister of the current leader, was promoted to a ministerial-level position as a party director at the Ninth Congress of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, KCNA reported last week. She was also nominated as a candidate for the Politburo, the party’s elite body that reports directly to Kim Jong Un.

At the same time, the North Korean dictator appears to be taking steps that could position his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, believed to be about 13 years old, as a figure who may one day hold power. She has been seen accompanying her father at major events on several occasions, including a night-time military parade last Wednesday.

Rivalry may occur within the Kim family

Kim Jong Un’s push to push his daughter to the forefront could trigger a power struggle with his influential aunt, Ri Jong-yil, former deputy head of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service and former ambassador to the United Kingdom, according to the British newspaper The Telegraph.

However, former NIS deputy head Han Ki Bum told DW that speculation about a power grab is a ‘hypothetical scenario with low credibility.’

‘For example, psychological tension or rivalry may exist between Ri Sol Ju, Kim Jong Un’s wife, and Kim Yo Jong. Ri Sol Ju could convey that tension to her husband, but Kim Yo Jong, as the leader’s aide, must bow to her brother’s authority. Therefore, although there may be tension between them at present, it cannot be spoken about publicly,’ Han said.

‘The key point is that Kim Ju Ae is around 13 and did not attend the congress. She is too young to be regarded as an heir,’ Han said.

‘Moreover, Kim Jong Un’s own power base has not yet fully consolidated. Discussions about succession are a distant scenario, relevant only if Kim faces serious health issues in about two decades.’

Han explained that Kim Jong Un’s frequent public appearances with his daughter are aimed at emphasising continuity and validating his leadership. ‘Taking Kim Ju Ae to missile launches or to military training locations sends a message about the future generation,’ he said.

‘Speculation about Kim’s succession is premat mature’

Kim Hyongseok, former deputy minister for unification of South Korea, also told DW that Kim Ju Ae may be used symbolically to represent the next generation. However, he noted that awarding her a formal title would be difficult to accept given her young age.

Regarding speculation about rivalry between Kim Jong Un’s daughter and his sister, experts say that such a scenario is unlikely for now. ‘This rumor arises as Kim Yo Jong has grown more prominent in inter-Korean and foreign policy, alongside renewed discussion of Kim Ju Ae’s succession,’ they said. ‘If Kim Ju Ae is officially confirmed as the successor and unusual circumstances involving Kim Jong Un arise, such a possibility could be considered.’

Former spokesperson for the Ministry of Unification, Jeong Joon Hee, also told DW that Kim Jong Un is likely to continue boosting his daughter’s profile informally. ‘Speculation about a power grab is too early. The framework of succession can only proceed once all challengers have been eliminated,’ Jeong said. He warned that if Kim Yo Jong were to become an obstacle to the succession, the North Korean leader would deal with her firmly, ‘regardless of the fact that she is his sister.’

However, if Kim Jong Un dies suddenly, ‘Kim Yo Jong could emerge as the key power figure, though ambitious military leaders may also come forward,’ Jeong added.

Kim Ju Ae’s popularity hampers study plans. A former senior official at the Ministry of Unification told DW that experts remain divided on whether Kim Ju Ae has been designated as heir. ‘There may be ceremonial gestures to raise her profile, but it’s too early to formally declare her as the heir. Ideally, she should study abroad, as her father and aunt did in Switzerland. But her current level of public exposure makes studying abroad difficult.’ He added, ‘A North Korean defector diplomat told me that it would be impossible for Kim Yo Jong to become the supreme ruler of North Korea.’

This is because direct bloodline traditionally has priority in North Korea’s power succession, so it is very unlikely for a sister to inherit leadership, according to the South Korean official.