Will Asian strongmen survive in the next millennium?

Will Asian strongmen survive in the next millennium?

Lee Hsien Loong

SINGAPORE (DPA): Where have all the Asian strongmen gone? In
fact, some are still around and kicking at the dawn of a next
millennium, and the shadows of others continue to haunt the
approaching "Asian century" despite signs of growing
democratization in the region.

Many of Asia's best known authoritarian leaders of the 20th
century such as Myanmar's (Burma's) Ne Win, The Philippines'
Ferdinand Marcos, China's Deng Xiaoping and Indonesia's Soeharto
have fallen or died in the past decade.

But at the start of the new millennium it remains unclear what
will replace them -- a new generation of strongmen and
authoritarian regimes or more pluralistic, democratic political
systems.

The Asian crisis claimed strongman Soeharto after the street
riots of May, 1998, ended his 30-year authoritarian, military-
backed, family-friendly rule. Soeharto's era of influence was
arguably sealed for good this year, when the Indonesian populace
on June 7 voted for Megawati Soekarnoputri's Indonesian
Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P).

Although Megawati lost her bid for Indonesia's presidency to
Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid last October, the dramatic political
developments this year have left Soeharto, and to some extent the
military, out of the political picture for the first time in
decades.

Whether the military will stage a coup to reclaim control,
especially if the ailing Wahid dies and passes power to Megawati,
remains the million-dollar millennium question.

While Indonesia may have dumped their strongman, Malaysia's
last general election of Nov. 29 proved that Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamad is still a force to be reckoned with.

Despite waning popularity among Malaysian Muslims for his
rough handling of former friend and deputy prime minister Anwar
Ibrahim, Mahathir's ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front)
coalition clinched an electoral victory and has returned to power
for another five-year term.

Mahathir, prime minister since 1981, is now firmly in place as
Asia's longest-serving elected leader. If anything the Asian
crisis could strengthen his hand, if he can successfully pull the
Malaysian economy out of recession without help from the West
with his controversial selective capital controls.

Already a leading advocate for "Asian values" and thumbing
one's nose at the West, Mahathir bragged a few months ago that
Malaysia's recovery had been achieved without "having to bend and
bow to anyone (or)... having to kiss anyone's feet."

Neighboring Singapore remains similarly strongman or
stability-friendly, even though paragon leader Lee Kuan Yew bowed
out of power more than ten years ago, turning over the
premiership to Goh Chok Tong in November 1990.

"The economic crisis, particularly the upheaval in Indonesia
and the political tumult in Malaysia, reinforced Singaporeans'
appreciation of a stable government that handles things well,"
said Bruce Gales, Singapore-based regional manager of the
Political & Economic Risk Consultancy.

Lee, who turned a marshy island into an oasis of prosperity
during 31 years of authoritarian rule, keeps a paternal watch
over Singapore and has paved the way for his son, Lee Hsien
Loong, to take the premiership when Goh retires, probably before
the next general election in 2002.

While Lee the Elder ruled with an iron fist, both Goh and Lee
Hsien Loong have cultivated warmer, more relaxed images.

"We're seeing the glimmer of more pluralistic decision making
at the top," said PERC's Gales.

In the pluralistic Philippines the ghost of Marcos, who died
in exile in Hawaii ten years ago, hangs over the country he ruled
for 20 years before being ousted by a popular uprising in 1986.

Signs of similarities between the current elected government
of President Joseph Estrada and the old Marcos regime have raised
hackles, sometimes blocking essential reforms.

For instance, Estrada's proposal to amend the 1987
constitution to make it more attuned to the global situation, by
facilitating foreign investment, was immediately opposed.

Critics expressed concern that Estrada, a close friend of
Marcos and no stranger to cronyism himself, was trying to change
the constitutional clause which limits his term to six years.

Thailand has perhaps fared best in the region in terms of
ridding itself of military strongmen and authoritarian rule.
Military strongmen such as Phibul, Sarit, Thanom, Prapat and
Narong, are arguably a thing of the past.

The last attempt by a military man to lead the government,
Gen. Suchinda Krapayoon who was appointed prime minister for a
volatile 48 days in 1992, led to mass demonstrations in the
streets of Bangkok.

After the violent showdown between soldiers and pro-democracy
protesters in May 1992 the military has beaten a dignified
retreat from Thailand's political scene.