Will Asian strongmen survive in the next millennium?<\/p>\n
Lee Hsien Loong<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE (DPA): Where have all the Asian strongmen gone? In
\nfact, some are still around and kicking at the dawn of a next
\nmillennium, and the shadows of others continue to haunt the
\napproaching \"Asian century\" despite signs of growing
\ndemocratization in the region.<\/p>\n
Many of Asia's best known authoritarian leaders of the 20th
\ncentury such as Myanmar's (Burma's) Ne Win, The Philippines'
\nFerdinand Marcos, China's Deng Xiaoping and Indonesia's Soeharto
\nhave fallen or died in the past decade.<\/p>\n
But at the start of the new millennium it remains unclear what
\nwill replace them -- a new generation of strongmen and
\nauthoritarian regimes or more pluralistic, democratic political
\nsystems.<\/p>\n
The Asian crisis claimed strongman Soeharto after the street
\nriots of May, 1998, ended his 30-year authoritarian, military-
\nbacked, family-friendly rule. Soeharto's era of influence was
\narguably sealed for good this year, when the Indonesian populace
\non June 7 voted for Megawati Soekarnoputri's Indonesian
\nDemocratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P).<\/p>\n
Although Megawati lost her bid for Indonesia's presidency to
\nAbdurrahman \"Gus Dur\" Wahid last October, the dramatic political
\ndevelopments this year have left Soeharto, and to some extent the
\nmilitary, out of the political picture for the first time in
\ndecades.<\/p>\n
Whether the military will stage a coup to reclaim control,
\nespecially if the ailing Wahid dies and passes power to Megawati,
\nremains the million-dollar millennium question.<\/p>\n
While Indonesia may have dumped their strongman, Malaysia's
\nlast general election of Nov. 29 proved that Prime Minister
\nMahathir Mohamad is still a force to be reckoned with.<\/p>\n
Despite waning popularity among Malaysian Muslims for his
\nrough handling of former friend and deputy prime minister Anwar
\nIbrahim, Mahathir's ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front)
\ncoalition clinched an electoral victory and has returned to power
\nfor another five-year term.<\/p>\n
Mahathir, prime minister since 1981, is now firmly in place as
\nAsia's longest-serving elected leader. If anything the Asian
\ncrisis could strengthen his hand, if he can successfully pull the
\nMalaysian economy out of recession without help from the West
\nwith his controversial selective capital controls.<\/p>\n
Already a leading advocate for \"Asian values\" and thumbing
\none's nose at the West, Mahathir bragged a few months ago that
\nMalaysia's recovery had been achieved without \"having to bend and
\nbow to anyone (or)... having to kiss anyone's feet.\"<\/p>\n
Neighboring Singapore remains similarly strongman or
\nstability-friendly, even though paragon leader Lee Kuan Yew bowed
\nout of power more than ten years ago, turning over the
\npremiership to Goh Chok Tong in November 1990.<\/p>\n
\"The economic crisis, particularly the upheaval in Indonesia
\nand the political tumult in Malaysia, reinforced Singaporeans'
\nappreciation of a stable government that handles things well,\"
\nsaid Bruce Gales, Singapore-based regional manager of the
\nPolitical & Economic Risk Consultancy.<\/p>\n
Lee, who turned a marshy island into an oasis of prosperity
\nduring 31 years of authoritarian rule, keeps a paternal watch
\nover Singapore and has paved the way for his son, Lee Hsien
\nLoong, to take the premiership when Goh retires, probably before
\nthe next general election in 2002.<\/p>\n
While Lee the Elder ruled with an iron fist, both Goh and Lee
\nHsien Loong have cultivated warmer, more relaxed images.<\/p>\n
\"We're seeing the glimmer of more pluralistic decision making
\nat the top,\" said PERC's Gales.<\/p>\n
In the pluralistic Philippines the ghost of Marcos, who died
\nin exile in Hawaii ten years ago, hangs over the country he ruled
\nfor 20 years before being ousted by a popular uprising in 1986.<\/p>\n
Signs of similarities between the current elected government
\nof President Joseph Estrada and the old Marcos regime have raised
\nhackles, sometimes blocking essential reforms.<\/p>\n
For instance, Estrada's proposal to amend the 1987
\nconstitution to make it more attuned to the global situation, by
\nfacilitating foreign investment, was immediately opposed.<\/p>\n
Critics expressed concern that Estrada, a close friend of
\nMarcos and no stranger to cronyism himself, was trying to change
\nthe constitutional clause which limits his term to six years.<\/p>\n
Thailand has perhaps fared best in the region in terms of
\nridding itself of military strongmen and authoritarian rule.
\nMilitary strongmen such as Phibul, Sarit, Thanom, Prapat and
\nNarong, are arguably a thing of the past.<\/p>\n
The last attempt by a military man to lead the government,
\nGen. Suchinda Krapayoon who was appointed prime minister for a
\nvolatile 48 days in 1992, led to mass demonstrations in the
\nstreets of Bangkok.<\/p>\n
After the violent showdown between soldiers and pro-democracy
\nprotesters in May 1992 the military has beaten a dignified
\nretreat from Thailand's political scene.<\/p>",
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