Why Trump's Hormuz Blockade is a Dangerous Gamble?
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The decision by United States President Donald Trump to impose a blockade on shipping traffic to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas is seen as a highly risky move. The policy, which takes effect on 13 April, not only has the potential to worsen the global energy crisis but could also trigger a new escalation of conflict in the region.
This step comes amid a war that began on 28 February, when the US and Israel attacked Iran. While many previously suspected that Iran would fully close the Strait of Hormuz, it is now the US taking the blockade action.
Trump hopes that economic pressure will force Iran to reopen the strategic route, after military strikes failed to yield the desired results.
Blockade Used to Pressure Iran
The main reason for the US blockade is Iran’s threats, which have drastically reduced tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
However, at the same time, Iran can still export its oil, albeit in smaller volumes. Iran is also reportedly allowing some ships to pass on condition of paying certain fees.
On Saturday (11/4/2026), two large tankers owned by Chinese companies carrying Iraqi and Saudi Arabian oil still passed through the Strait of Hormuz. One Liberian-flagged tanker was also recorded passing. The message Trump wants to send is that if cargo cannot pass freely, then Iranian cargo should not enjoy the route either.
From a military perspective, the plan is considered feasible. Retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery said the US can relatively easily stop, board, and seize ships. For example, the US previously seized 10 tankers linked to Venezuela between December and February. According to him, the US does not need to capture all ships; just a few to send a strong signal.
Economically and politically, the blockade’s goal is suspected to be to cut off Iran’s main source of revenue and force Tehran to make concessions in peace negotiations, particularly regarding its nuclear programme. In theory, Iran is indeed in a vulnerable position.
Ernest Censier from Vortexa estimates that Iran could be forced to reduce production within 20 days if the blockade is fully and effectively implemented. Even, the pressure could start to be felt within 10 days.
However, not all parties are convinced that this pressure will immediately make Iran surrender. Esfandyar Batmanghelidj from the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation said Iran has anticipated from the start that its oil exports would be disrupted due to the war.
He also recalled that Iran has faced similar pressures before. In 2020, Iran’s crude oil exports dropped below 400,000 barrels per day, from 2.2 million barrels per day in 2018, but Iran was still able to endure.
According to him, Iran could likely hold out for about six months by printing money, selling around 100 million barrels of oil stored on floating ships off the coasts of Malaysia and China, and obtaining informal credit from import suppliers.
Risks to Food and Energy Increase
Iran still relies on some imports via sea routes. About one-fifth of its wheat imports, a staple food, previously came from the United Arab Emirates. Most of Iran’s corn also comes from Brazil and Ukraine via ports in or near the Gulf region. Some of that supply can be replaced via Russia and Kazakhstan through the Caspian Sea or land routes, but at higher costs.
The greater vulnerability lies with soybeans. Almost all of Iran’s livestock feed and vegetable oil depends on imported raw materials. If these supplies are disrupted, food prices could spike even more sharply. Meanwhile, food prices in Iran in March were already 110% higher than the same period last year.
At the same time, the impact on the global energy market is also a major concern. The loss of Iranian oil production alone may not be catastrophic, but the problem is that this situation coincides with the much larger Gulf oil supplies being held up due to the largely still-closed Strait of Hormuz.
With the fragile ceasefire, Iran is seen as having little incentive to reopen the route. In fact, Iran will almost certainly resume attacking neutral ships. This situation could force oil-importing countries to deplete their already limited energy reserves, potentially pushing Brent crude futures prices towards US$150 per barrel by the end of April.
The risk will be even greater if Iran truly attacks oil production facilities, pipelines, and ports belonging to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other Gulf countries. Not to mention the threat of attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-allied Houthi group in Yemen.
Many Countries Could Be Affected, International Law at Stake
This blockade also risks dragging in many countries. India, for example, denies having paid fees for its ships to pass. However, Trump on 12 April 2026 said such payments could be grounds for interception.
On the same day, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that the blockade would be enforced impartially, in accordance with international law, against ships from any country that have passed through Iranian ports or coastal areas.
This means Indian ships could also be affected. In addition, oil destined for China, Pakistan, and Thailand was recorded leaving Hormuz in the days after the ceasefire. France and Turkey, which are US allies, are also said to have sent ships through the route with Iran’s approval.
The US might only need to stop a few ships to deter others from attempting to pass. However, such actions still risk provoking the anger of friendly countries.
On the other hand, although some US officials view China as…