Why HYBE Shares Are Crashing Ahead of BTS Comeback?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - HYBE Corporation shares tumbled this week. The stock movement experienced a decline amid the global group’s BTS comeback.

HYBE’s stock performance was far below the South Korean stock market KOSPI. Throughout this week, the KOSPI index surged 5.36%, but HYBE shares plunged 4.84%.

Year-to-date, the KOSPI has soared 37.18% while HYBE has only risen 4.24%.

KOSPI Market Structure and Volatility Factors

The KOSPI’s movement during March 2026 showed a fluctuation range influenced by global macroeconomic and geopolitical sentiments.

Based on historical trading data, the KOSPI once recorded a sharp drop to 5,093.54 on 4 March 2026, responding to tensions in the Middle East region. The index then gradually adjusted and closed at 5,781.20 in Friday’s trading, strengthening 0.31%.

The KOSPI strengthened throughout 2026, driven by a surge in the semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors.

Demand from AI, data centres, and cloud computing pushed up prices of memory chips like DRAM and NAND sharply. This boosted the performance of tech giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, serving as the main driver of the index’s rise.

Additionally, the chip industry entered a recovery phase after the 2022-2023 slump, with producers’ margins starting to improve.

From a global perspective, expectations of interest rate cuts encouraged foreign fund inflows into the Korean market. The strengthening won and market reforms through the “Korea Value-Up” programme also increased the attractiveness of stocks. This policy encourages companies to boost dividends, conduct share buybacks, and improve transparency, making stock valuations more appealing to investors.

Export recovery, particularly in chips and electric vehicles, further reinforced the KOSPI’s upward trend. However, heavy reliance on the semiconductor sector remains a major risk ahead.

KB Financial Group’s Global Investment Strategist, Peter S. Kim, noted that the South Korean stock market still faces structural valuation challenges, known among market players as the “Korea discount”.

This phenomenon refers to the condition where domestic companies’ valuations tend to be below those of advanced markets, despite adequate profit fundamentals.

High participation from retail investors focused on short-term trading and the use of leveraged instruments also affects the index’s overall stability. The market structure, dominated by hot money movements, makes the KOSPI vulnerable to sudden sentiment changes.

These structural conditions make it difficult for institutional investors to place long-term capital and hedge portfolios.

This triggers capital rotation and fund withdrawals by investors whenever global market conditions adjust, making the market foundation seem insufficiently stable to withstand short-term selling pressure.

Why Are HYBE Shares Falling?

At the individual stock level, HYBE recorded a weakening trend as the schedule for the group’s BTS comeback concert in Gwanghwamun, Seoul, approached on Saturday (21/3/2026). At Friday’s (20/3/2026) close, the shares closed at KRW 344,000, down 2.96%.

This weakening extended the suffering of HYBE shares, which fell 6.4% in the last two days.

This figure continues the periodic correction trend from its peak position of KRW 404,500 recorded on 19 February 2026.

The decline occurred amid BTS’s comeback and first concert after reactivating in the music world following a four-year hiatus for military service.

BTS officially announced a new album titled “ARIRANG” with the lead single “SWIM” released on Friday (20/3/2026). They held a concert titled BTS THE COMEBACK LIVE | ARIRANG on Saturday (21/3/2026).

Although the company reported initial sales volume of the new album “Arirang” reaching 3.98 million copies on the first day, short-term caution sentiment still dominated the market.

The weakening of HYBE shares amid the global group BTS’s comeback raises questions among investors. After all, BTS’s return should be a positive catalyst for the company’s performance.

However, market players view the situation from a different angle.

One main factor is the classic stock market phenomenon known as ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’. HYBE’s share price had already risen before the BTS comeback, in line with high investor expectations. When the comeback actually happened, many investors chose to take profits, pressuring the share price.

As a note, HYBE shares jumped 2.3% on 2 January 2026 after the music agency HYBE, BigHit Music, announced that BTS would release a new album. In the three days following, HYBE shares continued to rise, soaring 7.34%.

Additionally, HYBE’s valuation is considered sufficiently high. With a premium price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, the BTS comeback is expected to deliver extraordinary results. When the realisation does not exceed expectations, the market tends to respond negatively.

The latest data shows the company’s trailing P/E (TTM) could reach around 200 to 400 times, even breaking above 400-800 times depending on the profit period. This means investors are “paying” 200-800 years of current profits.

In comparison, competitors in the K-pop industry like SM Entertainment have a P/E around 8x, while JYP Entertainment is around 13x.

Pressure also comes from short-term sentiment.

Amid concert preparations, BIGHIT MUSIC announced on Friday that BTS leader RM or Kim Nam-joon suffered an ankle injury during practice the day before.

This injury limits physical movements on stage and minimises mobility for the next two weeks.

News of one BTS member’s injury and the market’s not fully euphoric response