WHO warns signs point to global influenza outbreak
WHO warns signs point to global influenza outbreak
Agencies, Geneva
Indonesia's first human bird flu case, coupled with more birds
dying elsewhere including Russia, are signs a long-dreaded global
influenza pandemic may be approaching, the World Health
Organization (WHO) said on Friday.
Health officials fear the virus will mutate and mix with human
influenza, creating a deadly pandemic strain that becomes easily
transmissible and could kill millions of people.
The world could at any time be faced with a massive flu
outbreak like those in 1918 or 1968 that killed tens of millions
of people, the WHO warned on Friday, urging countries to be
prepared.
"History has told us that no one can stop a pandemic. The
question is: when is it going to happen?" WHO spokeswoman
Margaret Chan told reporters.
"I don't think anybody has the answer to it. We have to be on
the lookout for any time, any day," she added.
Deadly avian influenza, which has killed 55 people in Asia
since resurfacing in 2003, has the potential to become a major
human pandemic if the virus were to mutate and allow human-to-
human transmission, Chan said.
The HN51 strain of bird flu, which has killed hundreds of
thousands of birds, constitutes one of several "warnings from
nature" -- the first since 1968, according to Chan, Hong Kong's
director of health from 1994 to 2003.
"We collectively, particularly national authorities, have to
take a very conscientious decision: if you are given early
signals and if you are not prepared, you have a very difficult
case to answer if indeed it happens," she said.
"Our experience is that if you are prepared for a pandemic,
you get less impact in terms of mortality, morbidity, social and
economic disruption."
Chan admitted that preparation for a possible flu pandemic
could divert resources from other health emergencies like the
fight against AIDS or polio, but said such measures would improve
the tracking of life-threatening diseases.
But Chan said there had been no known sustained human to human
transmission of the deadly virus, but called for stepping up
disease surveillance among poultry and humans worldwide.
Indonesia this week confirmed its first death from the virus.
An Indonesian government official was confirmed as having died
of the H5N1 bird flu virus, but results of laboratory tests on
his two young daughters who also died are still awaited.
"This is more evidence for us to be concerned about
developments in the region," Chan told a news briefing.
"This is perhaps the only time since 1968, which was the last
pandemic, that we are getting signs, symptoms and warnings from
nature ... More and more birds are dying in different parts of
the world -- this is the kind of signals, and early warnings that
we are referring to."
Russia this week said it had discovered a disease in poultry
in a remote village in Siberia, its first suspected case of bird
flu. Around 300 birds died and specimens are being analyzed.
Mixed poultry trading -- where ducks, geese, chickens and
sometimes pigeons are sold side-by-side at market -- can be an
"enabling environment for the virus to mutate", Chan said.
Recommended measures include separating poultry, vaccination
of poultry, and other biosecurity measures on farms, she said.
"Our experience is that if you are prepared for a pandemic you
get less impact in terms of mortality and morbidity and social
and economic disruption," she said.
Chan also said that the WHO, a United Nations agency, was
still pressing China to allow international laboratories to
examine specimens from birds in Qinghai, where the H5N1 virus has
killed more than 5,000 birds from five species.
The WHO is urging China to test the other 184 species in the
area, fearing birds which appear healthy could also spread the
disease. This would help understand the evolution of the virus
and inform public health decisions, according to Chan.