Whither, Cambodia?

Whither, Cambodia?

PHNOM PENH (JP): The situation appears to have returned to
normal in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, as the Cambodian
People's Party (CPP) forces of Premier Hun Sen apparently have
taken control of most parts of the country.

But concern remains widespread as indicated by the fact that
international flights to and from Phnom Penh (except to Vietnam)
remain scarce. Until the end of this month, all flights from
Phnom Penh to Bangkok are fully booked by foreigners and
Cambodians who want to leave the country, according to a Royal
Air Cambodge official in Bangkok.

Photographs published here this week have revealed that the
battle in Phnom Penh on July 4 and July 5 was fierce and the
damage severe. Heavy damage at Ponchentong Airport and many parts
of the capital could still not be estimated.

But for some of the capital's inhabitants, the war has created
new economic opportunities. The Khmer Rouge -- along with
Ranariddh's FUNCINPEC forces -- have apparently played a "Robin
Hood war" against Hun Sen's CPP by looting a garment factory and
giving away the booty. As a result, 10 days after the battle, one
could witness a new garment market stretching more than three
kilometers along the street connecting the airport and the
capital. Sad though the fighting was, one taxi driver said "while
some people can benefit from it, the popularity of the Khmer
Rouge grows".

Meanwhile, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has started a new
offensive. In a meeting held last week but which was only
revealed Monday, Hun Sen asked ASEAN ambassadors why the ASEAN
countries (with some exceptions) in 1970 supported and accepted
the Lon Nol regime, which "suspended the constitution, imposed
martial law and changed the monarchy into a republic. And what I
did was nothing but suppress the anarchy forces".

Hun Sen, of course, did more than just that. But he has been
able to create and carefully maintain some legitimacy by
capitalizing on the political and diplomatic momentum that was on
his side. There were several factors over the past weekend that
benefited his position vis-a-vis in the world community after he
ousted the first co-prime minister, Norodom Ranariddh.

First, King Sihanouk, as Kyodo news agency reported, had
conspicuously refrained from using the word "coup d'etat", which
his son, Ranariddh, accused Hun Sen of. In a carefully worded
statement urging the two warring sides to start negotiations, the
king even referred to Hun Sen as "the victorious premier".

Sihanouk's attitude toward his former adversary, Hun Sen, is
now being compared to his strong, but unofficial, alliance with
the Khmer Rouge during the early 1990s peace process. At that
time, Sihanouk was considered self-confident, despite the fact
the Khmer Rouge had killed many of his siblings. A unifying
symbol to his nation, King Sihanouk remains a real political
authority and a key player who at times could surprise his
friends and enemies.

Coupled with the moderate statement issued by the UN Security
Council -- thanks, reportedly, to the stand taken by China and
Japan -- last week, Sihanouk's voice means a significant
diplomatic advantage for Hun Sen. This may compensate some
successes achieved by his rival, Ranariddh, in mobilizing U.S.
and ASEAN support. An additional, but not unimportant new factor
emerged when the Australian ambassador to Phnom Penh Tony Kevin,
in a leaked confidential cable suggested to his government in
Canberra "not to cry for Ranariddh" and give support instead to
Hun Sen.

If King Sihanouk accepts the ousting of his son Ranariddh, Hun
Sen's strength on the home front will grow even more as
FUNCINPEC's new leaders are preparing to return to the power
sharing formula by nominating a popular former resistance leader,
Toan Chay, to succeed Ranariddh as first co-prime minister.

The question now is if Ranariddh will do what he promised,
i.e. organize an armed resistance movement. If he does, it may
complicate the situation as it might provoke Cambodia's two
neighbors, which were classic adversaries, Thailand and Vietnam.
This may disrupt the ASEAN peace initiative.

But doubts are growing as to the ability and strength of
Ranariddh and his FUNCINPEC loyalists to create such a movement
without support from the Khmer Rouge. It was this, after all,
which provoked Hun Sen to get rid of Ranariddh, as he recently
conceded to the independent weekly Phnom Penh Post. Any
resistance force must control Angkor Vat, another powerful
national symbol, situated in Siem Reap, the province which
recently fell to Hun Sen's CPP forces.

So it is now left to the U.S. and ASEAN to coordinate their
peace efforts with the moderate, seemingly more realistic and
neutral approaches developed individually by Japan, China, the UN
Security Council -- and, though somewhat late, by the European
Union -- and of course with King Sihanouk's help.

Whoever will lead Cambodia in the future, it is ironic that
similar Cambodian crises which helped ASEAN grow solidly in the
1970s may now have become a potential threat to the stability of
the region. The Asia Regional Forum meeting to be held on July 27
should prevent this from happening.

Aboeprijadi Santoso is a freelance journalist based in Europe.