'What seems clear is that Indonesians will vote for change.

'What seems clear is that Indonesians will vote for change.
They have been disappointed by the leaders of the past five years
who have failed to make headway on reform.'

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Election-Indonesia
Indonesia's coming political shake-up
JP/6/MILNE

Indonesia's coming political shake-up

Peter Milne
Jakarta
is a freelance writer on Indonesian politics based in the UK

As Indonesia is approaching its first ever direct presidential
election, a major shift is occurring in the country's political
map.

However, it is one that many foreign and Indonesian
observers, not to mention members of the Indonesian elite, seem
to be having some trouble registering.

For the first time since the fall of President Soeharto in
1998, Indonesians will decide individually and in secret who --
from a choice of five candidates -- they believe should lead
their country for the next five years.

All the signs are that the nominee of the new Democratic
Party, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is far ahead of his rivals in
the race, including incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

This is a truly remarkable achievement when one considers that
Susilo's party had never contested an election prior to April
2004, and that Susilo only declared himself a contender for the
presidency in March of this year.

But despite Susilo's meteoric political rise, a surprising
number of professional political observers and financial market
analysts and fund managers seem convinced that Gen. (ret)
Wiranto, the candidate of Golkar, the former ruling party during
the Soeharto regime, could clinch the presidency in a second
round of voting in September.

There could be several reasons for this apparent denial of the
fundamental democratic and resulting political transformation
that is taking place in Indonesia. Obviously, such a democratic
process is a new experience for Indonesians, and observers are
unsure of just how the electorate will react to such freedom of
choice.

However, two other factors seem to play an important role.

First, in the recent past, opinion polls have often been
exploited by political parties to enhance their own standing, and
this has had the effect of destroying public confidence in the
use of polls as a means of gauging public opinion.

Second, there is a commonly held assumption among
professional observers and political players alike that the party
machines behind the candidates (and their running mates) will
somehow garner the support of the masses who voted for those
respective parties in the legislative phase of the election back
in April.

This, it is widely assumed, will be made possible through the
use of "money politics", whereby funds from parties will boost
support at the grassroots level in the days that remain before
the vote.

While it is certainly valid that many opinion polls have been
deliberately misused, or at the very least conducted with dubious
methodologies, two institutions are conducting methodologically
sound nationwide polls: The International Foundation for
Electoral Systems (Ifes) and the Indonesian Survey Institute
(LSI). Not surprisingly, both seem to support each other's
findings, tracking Susilo's progress from around the 20 percent
level back in March up to a remarkable 40 percent in May.

In the latest survey conducted by Ifes on June 4-9 and
published last week, Susilo registered support of an impressive
45 percent.

The other assumptions, that the Indonesian electorate lacks
sophistication and that the electoral ways-of-old still operate
effectively and will largely determine voting patterns, are
erroneous. This logic assumes that, for instance, Wiranto will
garner almost all of the 22 percent of the electorate who voted
for Golkar in April.

This logic then extends to the inclusion of a major slice of
the National Awakening Party (PKB) vote of 11.6 percent, given
that Wiranto's running-mate, Solahuddin Wahid, is a brother of
former Indonesian president and founder of the PKB, Abdurrahman
Wahid and that Abdurrachman has given his "unofficial"
endorsement to Wiranto's campaign.

Either way, this view assumes that the majority of
Indonesians are unable to make up their own minds or that they
are susceptible to vote-buying. In the new democratic system that
is now operating, both views are unfounded.

Nonetheless, they do help to explain why so many professional
observers and members of the political elite in Indonesia are
having such difficulty in accepting the magnitude of the
political shift that is already well underway. Indonesian voters
are ahead of the game.

If anything, the latest Ifes poll suggests that Susilo could
come close to winning an outright victory on July 5. With support
of around 45 percent, together with a pro-rata proportion of the
as-yet undecided segment of the poll of 21 percent, this would
give Susilo around 54 percent of the total vote.

Given that his support is fairly evenly spread on a national
basis (another important criterion in measuring outright victory
next week), while probably just too much of a stretch Susilo
could be Indonesia's president-elect within two weeks.

If such an outcome were to come about, this would be a
political and democratic feat of historic proportions. Since the
latest Ifes poll was conducted in early June, there has probably
been a bandwagon effect favoring Susilo in the following weeks.

This all comes at a time when Wiranto has continued to attract
negative publicity regarding human rights violations, and
Megawati continues her lackluster performance remaining
relatively static in the polls.

Quietly, and with firm resolution, 154 million Indonesians are
preparing to deliver one of the most important and decisive
political decisions in their country's history.

Whether the choice of Indonesia's next president will be
concluded in July, or in a second round in September, what seems
clear is that Indonesians will vote for change. They have been
disappointed by the leaders of the past five years, who have
failed to make headway on reform.

If, as the polls suggest, Indonesians do vote resoundingly
for Susilo, they will be voting for what he represents: A strong
leader, but not a strongman, who brings with him a clean track
record and a reputation for backing reform; someone who seems to
be sincere in his intention to continue the process of transition
in Indonesia, moving away from the patronage politics of the past
towards professionalism, fairness and the rule of law; and, as a
previous coordinating minister for security, someone who can
improve security by ensuring that Indonesia's territorial
integrity is maintained and that the scourges of terrorism and
religious extremism are kept at bay.

Indonesians may remain somewhat over-optimistic in their
expectations of what any president can achieve in five years.
They have certainly been disappointed by the fruits of democracy
so far in the reformasi era, but have learnt the lessons.

Now, given a direct choice in their future president,
Indonesians will make a sound decision based on what is best for
their country. This is the most that democracy can offer and
Indonesians will use the opportunity to full effect -- to the
surprise of those who doubt their wisdom.

The author is a freelance writer on Indonesian politics based
in the UK.