What is the Thucydides Trap and Why Did Xi Jinping Mention it When Hosting Donald Trump?
Amidst the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the persistent tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait, the meeting between the two leaders of the world’s major powers in Beijing this week presented an unexpected narrative. Instead of focusing solely on contemporary issues, Chinese President Xi Jinping brought ancient history into the diplomatic discourse.
In the opening of the meeting on Thursday (May 14, 2026), Xi Jinping referred to the Peloponnesian War in ancient Greece, a protracted conflict between Athens and Sparta that erupted in 431 BC. This reference was not merely a history lesson, but a strategic warning to the United States under the leadership of Donald Trump.
Xi Jinping posed a sharp rhetorical question, “Can China and the United States transcend what is called the Thucydides Trap and forge a new paradigm for major power relations?”
The term Thucydides Trap refers to a theory of international relations that states that when a rising power (China) threatens to displace an established dominant power (the US), war often becomes an inevitable outcome. This theory is taken from the writings of the historian Thucydides, “It was the rise of Athens and the fear it caused in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
While delivering a stern warning during the day, Xi Jinping showed a softer tone during the state banquet in the evening. He stated that the ambitions of both countries could actually go hand in hand.
“The realization of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the effort to make America great again can fully go hand in hand and promote the well-being of the entire world,” Xi said.
In response to the historical reference, President Donald Trump made a comment via social media on Friday morning. Trump interpreted Xi’s reference to established powers as a subtle jab at the condition of the United States.
“Xi very elegantly referred to the fact that the United States may be a declining country,” Trump wrote. However, he immediately defended his position by adding, “Two years ago, we were indeed a declining country. Now, the United States is the greatest country in the world, and hopefully our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever!”
This meeting marks a new chapter in the hegemonic rivalry of the 21st century. Diplomacy is no longer just about trade figures, but also about how the two world giants avoid the curse of a history that is thousands of years old. (I-2)
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