What is the Godzilla El Niño Until October 2026 and How Significant is Its Impact?

The “Godzilla” El Niño phenomenon is predicted to potentially occur in Indonesia during this year’s dry season, around April to October 2026. This term has gained attention due to its association with extreme weather in the form of longer dry periods and reduced rainfall in various regions, including Indonesia. However, what exactly is the “Godzilla” El Niño, and how significant is its impact on Indonesia? Scientifically, El Niño is classified into three categories: weak, moderate, and strong. The term “Godzilla” is more of a popular descriptor for a very strong El Niño with widespread impacts. This term was first popularised by NASA scientist Bill Patzert in 2015 to describe one of the strongest El Niño events in modern history. In Indonesia, the term has been used again after the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) mentioned the potential combination of a strong El Niño with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which could worsen dry conditions. Under normal conditions, winds in the equatorial region push warm seawater towards the west, including Indonesia. This process helps form rain clouds over the archipelago. However, during El Niño, these winds weaken. As a result, the warm water shifts to the central and eastern Pacific, moving the centre of rain cloud formation away from Indonesia. Consequently, rainfall in Indonesia tends to decrease. However, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) emphasises that the current ENSO conditions are still in a neutral phase and have not been confirmed to develop into El Niño. Meanwhile, the outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as of March 2026 shows an increasing chance of El Niño during the June–August 2026 period, with a probability of around 62 percent.